Quantifying the environmental effects on tropical cyclone intensity change using a simple dynamically based dynamical system model

Abstract

Abstract Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is quite challenging due to multiple competing processes among the TC internal dynamics and the environment. Most previous studies have evaluated the environmental effects on TC intensity change from both internal dynamics and external influence. This study quantifies the environmental effects on TC intensity change using a simple dynamically based dynamical system (DBDS) model recently developed. In this simple model, the environmental effects are uniquely represented by a ventilation parameter B , which can be expressed as multiplicative of individual ventilation parameters of the corresponding environmental effects. Their individual ventilation parameters imply their relative importance to the bulk environmental ventilation effect and thus to the TC intensity change. Six environmental factors known to affect TC intensity change are evaluated in the DBDS model using machine learning approaches with the best-track data for TCs over the North Atlantic, central, eastern and western North Pacific and the statistical hurricane intensity prediction scheme (SHIPS) dataset during 1982–2021. Results show that the deep-layer vertical wind shear (VWS) is the dominant ventilation factor to reduce the intrinsic TC intensification rate or to drive the TC weakening, with its ventilation parameter ranging between 0.5–0.8 when environmental VWS between 200 and 850 hPa is larger than 8 m s −1 . Other environmental factors are generally secondary, with their respective ventilation parameters over 0.8. An interesting result is the strong dependence of the environmental effects on the stage of TC development.