The Role of Geopolitical Risk in Conflict Analysis: Critical Insights

Abstract

AbstractConflict analysis is a key step to be considered by conflict and peace academics, practitioners and policymakers willing to assess the complexities associated with conflict scenarios. With this aim, this essay explores how Geopolitical Risk, particularly the Geopolitical Risk Index, could be used as a supportive tool for multidisciplinary studies in geoeconomics and geopolitics. The case of the war in Ukraine was taken as an example that guided the research framework. The core research findings show that conflict studies could accommodate geopolitical risk as a conflict analysis tool. However, caution is needed regarding the limitations and complexities associated with econometric modeling and how it can be used to integrate behavioral sciences, which are critical aspects of understanding the human dimension attached to decision-making processes, and that emerge as a significant limitation. DISCLOSURE STATEMENTNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 See Conflict Analysis Tools document CSS/ETH Zürich 2005 (Manson and Richard Citation2005) for further and basic reference on classic conflict analysis tools or Social cubism: Six social forces of ethnoterritorial politics In northern ireland and Québec by Seàn Byrne and Neal CarterAdditional informationNotes on contributorsDaniel RajmilDaniel Rajmil is International Relations professor at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC) School of Law and Political Science. His lines of research are International Relations, Conflict studies, Geopolitics and Geo-economics. He is the director of the UOC-UNITAR (UN Institute for Training and Research) master in Conflict, Peace & Security and the Lead Research (IP) of the Catalan Government recognized research group in Geopolitics, Conflict and Human Rights (GEOCONDAH). E-mail: drajmil@uoc.eduLucía MoralesLucía Morales is an academic innovator and active researcher in the School of Accounting, Economics and Finance at Technological University Dublin (TU Dublin) in Ireland. Before her academic career, Lucía worked in the private sector, holding different roles: Financial Manager, Assistant Financial Manager, and Foreign Department Risk Analyst (Bank).