Simpsons paradox in the correlations between excess mortality and covid-19 injections: a case study of iatrogenic pandemic for elderly Australians

Abstract

Background: Conflicting findings in correlation studies between COVID-19 injections and excess deaths have been published. Negative correlations with 2021 data appear to justify the official claim that COVID-19 injections reduce illness and death and therefore should be prioritized for vulnerable elderly (over-75s) Australians. This claim needs to be reviewed including 2022 data. Method: Simpson’s Paradox is illustrated to explain how the negative correlations, supporting injection effectiveness can come from 2021 data, while positive correlations, suggesting injection ineffectiveness, have come from inclusion of 2022 data. Excess deaths of Australian elderly in the COVID pandemic are analysed in detail for their statistical significance. Results: Negative correlations from 2021 data are refuted in this paper as false causality, because the results have insufficient temporal separation between cause and effect. Strong positive correlation (69 to 74 percent) in Australian data is confirmed when the effects of excess mortality are lagged optimally by 21 weeks after COVID-19 injections [1]. A strong statistical signal (2.5 standard deviations) is shown in this paper in the mortality of elderly Australians, who suffered the greatest relative harm from the injections, even when adjusted for agedependent high expected mortality. Conclusion: Earlier epidemiological evidence that COVID injections reduce illness and death is now methodologically invalidated, and the claim that the injections are beneficial for the vulnerable is refuted. The injections explain the mystery of significant numbers of non-COVID excess deaths. The Australian pandemic is shown to be iatrogenic particularly for the elderly, who have suffered disproportionate harm. Deliberately ignoring this clear evidence is tantamount to iatrogenic geronticide.