The Gulf states and the energy transition in the Indo-Pacific

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the interdependence between the Gulf states and the Indo-Pacific in the context of the global energy transition away from a fossil-fuel based energy system. Instead of ending this energy interdependence, we argue that the energy transition presents opportunities for the Gulf states to address and manage energy governance issues with the Indo-Pacific. Applying a framework with four stylized choices comprising rule breaking, taking, promoting, and shaping, we find evidence that the Gulf states have evolved away from binary choices of rejecting or accepting the rules of global energy governance. Instead, some of them are becoming more adept at rule promoting and rule shaping, which, respectively, strengthen and contest but not undo the energy transition status quo.KEYWORDS: Energy transition governanceGulf statesIndo-Pacificrule shaper Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 There is a long-standing debate on the exact nature of the relationship between energy consumption and wealth although correlation is not disputed. For a review, see Tiba and Omri (Citation2017). Notwithstanding the above, there is a large body of research supporting the hypothesis that causation runs from income to energy consumption including in Asia (BP, Citation2019, p. 20; Kraft & Kraft, Citation1978; Raymond, Roselyne, & Ripple, Citation2021).2 The term ‘unabated’ fossil fuels refers to oil, gas, and coal that is consumed in a business-as-usual way without any reduction or capture of their climate-warming carbon and methane emissions.3 Circularity is an economic model that aims to keep resources in use for as long as possible based on the idea that resources should be reused, repaired, and/or recycled.4 In a rare instance of green hydrogen in Asia, ACWA Power concluded an MoU in 2022 with Thai energy company PTT and the Electricity Generating Authority for an investment of $7bn in green hydrogen projects in Thailand.5 Although China’s and India’s heavy coal consumption would also render them a focus of attention, their renewables industry is somewhat less welcoming than Indonesia’s to foreign power developers.6 These refer to the use of natural land or water-based ecosystems to absorb and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in order to offset carbon emissions from human activities such as the production, transport, and consumption of hydrocarbons. It is beyond the scope of the article to discuss the challenges of nature-based credits and offsets but see Cahill (Citation2022) and The Economist (Citation2022).Additional informationNotes on contributorsFarkhod AminjonovFarkhod Aminjonov is an Assistant Professor at the National Defense College, Abu Dhabi, UAE. Energy security, pipeline politics, sustainability transition, and governance, with a particular focus on Eurasia and the Gulf, lie at the center of his research interests. He has extensive experience engaging in individual and collaborative research projects with German, Canadian, Norwegian, American, and Turkish top-tier think tanks and such international organizations as the OSCE and the UN. His works appeared in the Journal of Contemporary China, RUSI Journal, Social Science Quarterly, UNISCI Journal, NUPI-OSCE Academy CADGAT Reports as well as multiple edited volumes by internationally recognized academic and policy-focused presses. He holds a Ph.D. from Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada and M.A. from Tsukuba University, Japan.Li-Chen SimLi-Chen Sim is an Assistant Professor at the Institute of International and Civil Security at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C. She is a specialist in the political economy of Russian and Gulf energy and its intersection with international relations. Her research interests include energy transition politics in the Middle East, Gulf-Asia exchanges, and Russia-Middle East interactions. She is the author of academic articles, chapters, and policy pieces published in leading journals such as Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Energy Research & Social Science, Journal of Contemporary China; on forums hosted by the Atlantic Council and Harvard University’s Belfer Center; and in popular media like the South China Morning Post and Al-Monitor. Her most recent co-edited books include Asian Perceptions of Gulf Security (Routledge 2023) and Low Carbon Energy in the Middle East and North Africa (Palgrave 2020). She holds a PhD from Oxford University.