Analysis Of Change Rate And Interest Rate Changes To Indonesia’s Trade Balance

Abstract

This research examines the impact of exchange rates and interest rates on Indonesia's trade balance from 1991 to 2021. International trade plays a crucial role in a country's economic activities, with exports and imports being key components. Monitoring these activities allows for the assessment of whether a nation's trade balance is in surplus or deficit. The trade balance of Indonesia is influenced by various factors, including exchange rates and interest rates. Employing the Error Correction Model (ECM) for analysis, both long-term and short-term effects were investigated. Classical assumption tests and significance tests, covering normality, multicollinearity, autocorrelation, partial (t tests), simultaneous (F test), R-Squared, and Adjusted R-Squared tests were conducted. The findings reveal that exchange rates have a significant impact on Indonesia's trade balance, with a stronger exchange rate leading to a favorable trade balance. Specifically, a robust exchange rate results in a reduction of export value surpassing that of imports. In contrast, interest rates were found to have no significant effect on the trade balance due to global economic disparities, financial market uncertainties stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic, and trade barriers imposed by individual countries.