Estimating the Value-at-Risk (VaR) in stock investment of insurance companies: An application of the extreme value theory

Abstract

As a capital market investment, stocks have risks that must be managed. Therefore, investors should consider the returns and risks of investment products. This study aims to estimate the risk of insurance companies' loss when investing. The method used to estimate the level of risk is Value at Risk (VaR) based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The data used is secondary data in the form of daily stock closing prices from two insurance companies, AXA General Insurance and BRI Insurance, from January 2016 to January 2022. The data were used to estimate the risk value according to the EVT principle. As a result, Insurance AXA General Insurance, with 5.91% liquidity, has the lowest VaR value with a 99% confidence level, while BRI Insurance has 5.04%. We concluded from these results that AXA General Insurance has a lower investment risk. It means that each company has a different risk value. Therefore, investors should know these risk factors when choosing a company.