Mathematical models for better determination of food security in Nigeria: A case study of Bauchi state, North-Eastern, Nigeria

Abstract

Foods play a fundamental role for growth and development of human body including animals. Food security remains the cardinal agenda of every serious government. The prices of available food commodities must be affordable to every citizen and that were determined by the cost of the food commodities. As prices of agricultural commodities keep increasing, the availability of food becomes limited to every household in Nigeria, especially in the North-Eastern region. The research was aimed at determining the mathematical model that was perfect for determining the food security in the study area. Time series equations and Non-linear equation were used to compare the prices of the selected agricultural commodities. Price is considered because, price play a vital role to food security in the country. This research covers the entire local governments of Bauchi state including the metropolis and the crop considered included; Maize, Rice and Soybeans. Twenty local governments (20) local governments of Bauchi state were visited to collect data on averaged price of three selected commodities per mudu (i.e. Maize, Rice and Soybeans) through direct interaction as well as from Bauchi state statistical year book from 2013 to date across the state from national bureau of statistics Bauchi. Standard method for determining a linear trend is the method of least square that used for linear regression was used to model the selected agricultural commodities. The findings revealed that the Non-linear equation method has a minimal error compared to the least square method; this was explained that Non-linear equation is the better model for determining food security in Bauchi state.