Pre-peak fare discount policy for managing morning peak demand of interregional bus travel: a case study in Seoul metropolitan area

Abstract

Pre-peak fare discount policies have become increasingly common in urban transit services and show potential to spread morning peak-hour demand. This study analyzes the departure time choice behavior of interregional bus passengers during morning hours. A mixed logit model is applied to estimate the probability of shifting departure time as a function of fare discount rate, in-vehicle congestion, and other influential factors, accommodating heterogeneity of passenger preferences. The analysis data are obtained through a stated preference survey, which is conducted to passengers who regularly use the interregional bus in Seoul metropolitan area. Choice models are segmented by departure time periods (peak, pre-peak, and post-peak) and occupation types (fixed time worker, flexible time worker, and student). Marginal utilities of the unobserved preferences are estimated to suggest policy implications. From the experimental analysis, target passengers for shifting departure time during peak hour are suggested as flexible time workers and students.