THE FUTURE OF EXPORT-BASED GROWTH POLICIES IN THE TURKISH ECONOMY: AN ECONOMETRIC SIMULATION APPROACH

Abstract

In this study, the long- and short-term relationship between exports and economic growth in the Turkish economy, using the ARDL bounds test approach with annual data sets for the period 1987-2021, was examined, and the per capita GDP figures of Turkiye for the period 2022-2032 were estimated by econometric simulation method. In the ARDL model estimation results, it was seen that effect of exports were positive and statistically significant on economic growth in the short and long term. According to the foresight analysis, it has been determined that the per capita GDP in 2032 will be $20990 in the base export scenario, $17327 in the low-export scenario, and nearly double to $25157 in the high-export scenario. These results show that it is possible for the GDP per capita to nearly double in the next ten years in the Turkish economy. Still, policy components are needed to increase exports by an average of 13.86% annually to reach these figures.