Painful Moments and Realignment: Explaining Ukraine’s Foreign Policy, 2014–2022

Abstract

For decades, Ukraine’s foreign policy was indecisive, with elites balancing domestic interests, Russia, and the West. This article claims a critical juncture occurred in 2013–2014 resulting in Ukraine’s decisive turn to the West for two main reasons. First, the fragmentation of the Donetsk elite and territorial losses that excluded parts of its voter base weakened “pro-Russian” political forces inside Ukraine. Second, Ukraine’s predominant foreign policy narrative increasingly portrayed the EU and NATO as a civilizational choice and Russia as a radical other. The article shows how the critical juncture made Ukraine’s shift possible and how Ukraine’s pro-Western orientation stabilized from 2014 onward.