Affective polarization, support for democracy, and the mediating role of the winner-loser status. A comparative study

Abstract

Does affective polarization undermine support for and satis­faction with democracy? In this article, I argue that it does. However, this effect is mediated by the outcome of elections, which group people along the winner-loser divide. I argue that support for and satisfaction with democracy will remain high or increase among polarized publics as long as the outcome of the elections benefits their own party, but not when it benefits the opposing groups. I test these hypotheses using data for 31 elections in 28 countries from CSES project. Results show that affective polarization does not undermine support for democracy and that it increases satisfaction with democracy. Additionally, the results indicate that the relationship between affective polarization and support for democracy will be diffe­rent for winners and losers of the election.