Interpreting Russian aims to control the Black Sea region through naval geostrategy (Part Two): ‘Establishing full control over Southern Ukraine and the Donbas is one of the tasks of the Russian Army’

Abstract

This is the second article in a study examining the influence of naval geostrategy as a driver influencing Russian policy and military strategy in the Black Sea region. By the mid-2010s, Russia featured a much-improved geostrategic situation in the Black Sea theater as compared to the beginning of the century. Nevertheless, substantial weaknesses remained, some of which Russia has been able to neutralize during the conduct of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Following an examination of Russian military actions during the Russo-Ukrainian War, the author concludes that the application of military force by Russia in parts of Ukraine and the wider Black Sea region follows a long-term rationale and that Odesa and Mykolaiv, located at the western Black Sea littoral, remain core concerns for Russian military planners, despite the Russian military’s current defensive posture at most sections of the front in southern Ukraine.