Fluctuations of ice in a lake due to the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1960/61–2009/10) – a case study of Łebsko Lake

IF 2.6 3区地球科学 Q2 OCEANOGRAPHY

Oceanologia Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI:10.1016/j.oceano.2023.10.004

Artur Młodzik, Roman Cieśliński, Izabela Chlost

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Abstract

The paper represents an attempt to understand the impacts produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation on the ice cover regime of the largest coastal lake in Poland situated in the northern part of the country. The purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on selected ice cover parameters. The study also attempts to examine other factors that may affect its significant impact on observed changes in the climate. Water temperature data are used to assess temperature conditions in aqueous ecosystems as well as determine the heat absorption capacity of these systems. This allows one to then determine cooling rates in the event of ice cover formation. The data analysis provided in the paper focuses on selected characteristics of ice cover conditions (i.e. dependent variables) including the number of days with ice and maximum ice thickness in relation to NAO index changes (i.e. independent variables) for the reference period 1960/61–2009/10. In addition, the paper divides the studied period into 10-year subperiods in order to capture the weakest and strongest phases of NAO and assess the extent to which they affect the duration of ice cover. A large increase in the mean air temperature (1.8^°C) occurred in the years 1960–2010. Trendline analysis indicates that the number of days with ice cover declined by about 60 days and the maximum thickness of ice cover decreased by about 10 cm. Oceanographic research employs satellite image data in order to accurately assess human impact. Therefore, ice cover forecasts generated for consecutive winter seasons may become an important tool in this type of assessment.

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北大西洋涛动（1960/61-2009/10）影响下的湖冰波动 - Łebsko 湖案例研究

本文试图了解北大西洋涛动对位于波兰北部的波兰最大沿海湖泊冰盖机制的影响。研究的目的是估计北大西洋涛动对选定冰盖参数的影响。研究还试图考察可能影响其对观测到的气候变化产生重大影响的其他因素。水温数据用于评估水生态系统的温度条件，并确定这些系统的吸热能力。这样就可以确定冰盖形成时的冷却速度。本文提供的数据分析侧重于冰盖条件的选定特征（即因变量），包括 1960/61-2009/10 年参照期的结冰天数和最大冰厚度与西北大西洋环流指数变化的关系（即自变量）。此外，本文还将研究期间划分为 10 年子期间，以捕捉北大西洋涛动的最弱和最强阶段，并评估它们对冰盖持续时间的影响程度。平均气温在 1960-2010 年间大幅上升（1.8°C）。趋势线分析表明，冰盖天数减少了约 60 天，冰盖最大厚度减少了约 10 厘米。海洋学研究利用卫星图像数据来准确评估人类影响。因此，为连续冬季生成的冰盖预报可能成为此类评估的重要工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Oceanologia 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

6.90%

发文量

审稿时长

146 days

期刊介绍： Oceanologia is an international journal that publishes results of original research in the field of marine sciences with emphasis on the European seas.