Methodological and technological aspects of computer modeling of decision-making scenarios

Abstract

The scenario approach in the field of decision-making for military structures implies carrying out research, the purpose of which is a detailed description of activities that allows for confirm-ing and determining management measures and avoiding future dangers based on consideration of the broadest possible range of options for the possible sequences of events. So it is unsurpris-ing that methodological problems in computer modeling of different scenarios are still relevant. The authors of the article propose an approach to modeling decision-making scenarios based on graphic methods of BPMN notation, Knowledge Graph technology, and OWL models to provide a semantic analysis of the developed scenario. As an example of the offered approach to the de-velopment of a decision-making scenario, the task «Planning of combat operations and man-agement of the naval unit» has been chosen. The approach lets the authors demonstrate the ad-vantages of the approach both during the formation of the scenario in general and at the stages of its implementation with a simulation complex that simulates the work of functional subsys-tems and consists of modules completing the tasks of each subsystem. The introduction of an ontology into the scenario model contributes to the semantic consistency of the scenario pro-cesses and improves the structure of the scenario model by identifying and eliminating hidden errors and inconsistencies. Using the Neo4j graph database (as a knowledge-based technology) allows for visualizing and detecting anomalies in BPMN models by analyzing dependencies and relationships between the elements and using the graph algorithms to find deviations, identify cycles, determine the shortest paths, and optimize processes. The proposed methodology makes it possible to significantly reduce the number of errors in the scenario model, which subse-quently significantly increases the effectiveness of modeling the organizational and functional structure and actions of officials when performing combat tasks with the simulation complex. The considered scenario is one of many others developed to explore the management processes of a naval unit that make up the knowledge base of the simulation complex scenarios. The simu-lation results have proven that the simulation complex can be used to work out a promising au-tomated control technology for naval and air forces.