Forecasting animal protein supply in Asia and Europe in light of climate change, population growth and land pressure

Abstract

This study delves into the intricate nexus of climatic, demographic, economic, and environmental variables, collectively shaping the availability of animal protein in Europe and Asia. The study analyzes interrelationships and reveals compelling outcomes. Notably, the global phenomenon of climate change, unmistakably linked to human activities, surfaces as a pressing concern. Temperature escalation, manifesting with regional nuances, underscores the urgency of collective efforts to combat climate impact, particularly pronounced in areas like Indonesia and the Mediterranean. This underscores the imperative for immediate collaborative actions to ameliorate climate consequences. Meanwhile, the surging emissions of CH₄, CO₂, and N₂O pollutants, primarily from industrial and agricultural sectors, pose a critical challenge. This mandates robust regulation within global environmental strategies and ongoing dialogues. In the realm of demography, relentless global population growth exerts formidable stress on natural resources and animal reserves. This burgeoning populace poses formidable tests for ensuring forthcoming food security and sustained animal protein availability. Economic analyses disclose variances in national gross incomes and animal protein prices, reflecting geographic distinctions. Heightened incomes signify enhanced purchasing power, while price oscillations correlate with health issues like avian flu. Multivariate analyses employing mixed linear regression models unveil the profound influence of select parameters such as temperature, pollutant emissions, population density, and production indicators on animal protein availability. This underscores the pivotal role of these factors in devising comprehensive food and environmental policies. Projections for forthcoming years anticipate augmented animal protein availability in certain Asian regions (Indonesia and Japan), though still beneath requisite demands, juxtaposed against a gradual decrement in Europe. Faced with these realities, the necessity to cultivate innovative strategies with alternative solutions comes to the fore. Exploring dairy and plant-based protein substitutes can meet rising demands while conserving the environment and public health.