Unraveling the dynamics of climate: empirical evidence from the Indian state of West Bengal

Abstract

Abstract Understanding climate variability and trends is crucial for managing a host of sectors. Everything from water availability to agricultural productivity is affected by variability and trends in temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation. Nevertheless, their dynamics have seldom been explored together, especially in India. To address this gap, the present study investigates the variability, trend, and magnitude of those parameters individually and concurrently using fractal dimension and non-parametric statistics over the Indian state of West Bengal from 1951 to 2020. The results show a south–north gradient in overall climate variability. The Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) is experiencing higher variability, along with a rising minimum temperature (≥0.008 °C year−1) and declining rainfall (≥− 1 mm year−1). Though the Sub-Himalayan West Bengal as a whole shows less variability, its foothills reveal modest variation coupled with increasing maximum temperature (≥0.005 °C year−1), reference evapotranspiration (≥0.4 mm year−1), and decreasing rainfall in the post-monsoon and winter seasons. Based on the results, we identified the western GWB, the Sundarbans, and the sub-Himalayan foothills as the most vulnerable areas and recommended proactive crop and water management strategies. Finally, we underline the need to analyze climate dynamics holistically to manage climate-sensitive sectors efficiently and sustainably.