The Prisoner’s Dilemma: Indonesia and the European Union in Export Commodity Disputes

Kasistha Cantyani, Jason Matthew, Sesilia Rainaputri Jans, Aureishia Huang
{"title":"The Prisoner’s Dilemma: Indonesia and the European Union in Export Commodity Disputes","authors":"Kasistha Cantyani, Jason Matthew, Sesilia Rainaputri Jans, Aureishia Huang","doi":"10.26593/sentris.v4i1.6794.86-100","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Nickel ore export ban has been imposed by Indonesia as the leading actor on the global nickel supply chain which created a disruption and has not been perceived well by other countries, especially the European Union (EU) countries. This paper will analyze the implications caused by the export ban to EU countries and the actions following it, including the enactment of the palm oil ban. Starting with the World Trade Organization (WTO) panel, the EU’s strategy of forcing Indonesia to lift the export ban has not yet succeeded. With the tit-for-tat strategy, this paper identifies the EU’s palm oil ban as a form of retaliation for the Indonesian nickel ore export ban. Although the tit-for-tat strategy often is used in a positive-sum game, the conflict between Indonesia and the EU is a negative-sum game with both parties putting their economies at risk.
 Keywords: nickel ore export ban, palm oil ban, tit-for-tat strategy, Indonesia, European Union
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 Organization, W. T. (n.d.-b). WTO Analytical Index GATT 1994 - Article XI (Practice). Retrieved January 9, 2023, from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/gatt1994_art11_oth.pdf 
 Pickrell, E. (2022, March 31). Russia-Ukraine War Helps Drive Nickel Prices, EV Headaches. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2022/03/31/russia-ukraine-war-helps-drive-nickel-prices ev-headaches/?sh=59f5c7eb57cd 
 Post, T. J. (2022, December 13). Indonesia appeals WTO ruling in nickel dispute against EU. The Jakarta Post. https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2022/12/13/indonesia-appeals-wto-ruling-in nickel-dispute-against-eu.html 
 Prasetyo, E. (n.d.). Questioning Indonesia’s Ban on Export of Ore Policy Under International Investment and Trade Law. 
 PUSHEP. (2021, February 3). Why does Indonesia’s nickel export ban upset the EU? Pusat Studi Hukum Energi Dan Pertambangan. https://pushep.or.id/why-does-indonesias-nickel-export-ban-upset-the eu/ 
 Staff, R. (2022, December 12). Indonesia appeals WTO ruling in nickel dispute against EU.Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/indonedia-eu-nickel-idUSKBN2SW1PR 
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 Uni Eropa | Portal Kementerian Luar Negeri Republik Indonesia. (2018).Kemlu.go.id. https://kemlu.go.id/portal/en/read/149/halaman_list_lainnya/uni-eropa 
 Warburton, E. (2018). Nationalism, developmentalism and politics in Indonesia’s mining sector. 
 Winona, C. V. (n.d.). Indonesia’s Nickel Industry in the Aftermath of Trade Dispute with the European 
 Union. Https://Cwts.ugm.ac.id. Retrieved January 9, 2023, from https://cwts.ugm.ac.id/en/2022/11/03/indonesias-nickel-industry-in-the-aftermath-of-tradedispute-with-the-european-union/#:~:text=Indonesia%20produces%201%20million%20metric WTO | dispute settlement - DS592: Indonesia - Measures Relating to Raw Materials. (n.d.). World Trade 
 Organization. Retrieved January 9, 2023, from https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds592_e.htm 
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 China-invested industrial parks bring boom to Indonesia’s nickel industry - Global Times. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1279768.shtml Yeo, R. (n.d.). Europe stainless steel prices fall further, no relief until September – sources – British Stainless Steel Association.
 British Stainless Steel Association. Retrieved January 10, 2023, from https://bssa.org.uk/europe-stainless-steel-prices-fall-further-no-relief-until-september-sources/","PeriodicalId":498746,"journal":{"name":"Sentris: Jurnal Mahasiswa Hubungan Internasional","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sentris: Jurnal Mahasiswa Hubungan Internasional","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.26593/sentris.v4i1.6794.86-100","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Nickel ore export ban has been imposed by Indonesia as the leading actor on the global nickel supply chain which created a disruption and has not been perceived well by other countries, especially the European Union (EU) countries. This paper will analyze the implications caused by the export ban to EU countries and the actions following it, including the enactment of the palm oil ban. Starting with the World Trade Organization (WTO) panel, the EU’s strategy of forcing Indonesia to lift the export ban has not yet succeeded. With the tit-for-tat strategy, this paper identifies the EU’s palm oil ban as a form of retaliation for the Indonesian nickel ore export ban. Although the tit-for-tat strategy often is used in a positive-sum game, the conflict between Indonesia and the EU is a negative-sum game with both parties putting their economies at risk. Keywords: nickel ore export ban, palm oil ban, tit-for-tat strategy, Indonesia, European Union REFERENCES Adam, B., & Ahamat, H. (2022). Indonesia’s Mineral Export Prohibition and Legality of Export Duties Under the GATT Rules. Sriwijaya Law Review, 6(2), 239. https://doi.org/10.28946/slrev.vol6.iss2.1661.pp239-253 Bloomberg. (2022, September 30). Export ban triples nickel investment in Indonesia’s Morowali. Mining Weekly. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/export-ban-triples-nickel-investment-in indonesias-morowali-2022-09-30 BNamericas - Why nickel prices are rising – and will rema... (2022, March 28). BNamericas.com. https://www.bnamericas.com/en/interviews/why-nickel-prices-are-rising--and-will-remain high#:~:text=The%20main%20point%20that%20will Codingest. (2023, January 16). Threats in Europe, for Indonesian Palm Oil in 2023. BPDP. https://www.bpdp.or.id/en/threats-in-europe-for-indonesian-palm-oil-in 2023#:~:text=The%20EU Commodity Watch Indonesia: Zooming In On Nickel, A Valuable Metal With A Bright Future | Indonesia Investments. (2022, June 7). Www.indonesia-Investments.com. https://www.indonesia investments.com/business/business-columns/commodity-watch-indonesia-zooming-in-on-nickel a-valuable-metal-with-a-bright-future/item9521 Decena, K. (2019, May 9). Chinese firms lay out processing facility plans after Indonesian ore export ban. Www.spglobal.com. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news insights/trending/l19hkna_dqquro-fmklifa2 Dunne, T., Kurki, M., & Smith, S. (2021). International relations theories : discipline and diversity (5th ed., p. 119). Oxford University Press. EU Needs Nickel, But Discriminates Palm Oil. (2021, March 8). Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI IPOA). https://gapki.id/en/news/19858/eu-needs-nickel-but-discriminates-palm-oil European Steel in Figures 2022. (n.d.). In EUROFER. EUROFER. Retrieved January 10, 2023, from https://www.eurofer.eu/assets/publications/brochures-booklets-and-factsheets/european steel-in-figures-2022/European-Steel-in-Figures-2022-v2.pdf Fahalmesta, F. (2022). Indonesia Nickel Crucial metal for low-carbon future (pp. 1–5). Korea Investment & Sekuritas Indonesia. https://kisi.co.id/storage/researchanalysis/August2022/ZuWoIYdDKyucPZU6Zurg.pdf Halm, I. van. (2023, January 10). The nickel price rollercoaster of 2022. Mining Technology. https://www.mining-technology.com/features/nickel-price-surge-2022-markets/ Home, A. (2022, September 30). Column: Indonesia’s nickel surge bad news for price and pricing. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesias-nickel-surge-bad news-price-pricing-2022-09-29/ Huber, I. (2021, December 8). Indonesia’s Nickel Industrial Strategy. Www.csis.org. https://www.csis.org/analysis/indonesias-nickel-industrial-strategy Idris, M. (2021, January 15). Uni Eropa, Gigih Tolak Sawit Indonesia, Tapi Butuh Nikelnya Halaman all. KOMPAS. https://money.kompas.com/read/2021/01/15/203805526/uni-eropa-gigih-tolak-sawit indonesia-tapi-butuh-nikelnya?page=all Kelapa sawit, ancaman perang dagang RI-Uni Eropa dan enam hal lainnya. (2019, March 23). BBC News Indonesia. https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/indonesia-47663602 Lim, B., Kim, H. S., & Park, J. (2021). Implicit Interpretation of Indonesian Export Bans on LME Nickel Prices: Evidence from the Announcement Effect. Risks, 9(5), 93. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9050093 Nainggolan, B., Wijayati, A., Panjaitan, H., Saputra, D. F., & Rahim, R. (2021). ICLHR 2021: Proceedings from the 1st International Conference on Law and Human Rights, ICLHR 2021, 14- 15 April 2021, Jakarta, Indonesia. In Google Books. European Alliance for Innovation. https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=5a1jEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA226&dq=indonesia+nickel+ban+policy+european+union&ots=qdPe9VZPqw&sig=InXkmX Hqfja4EHtRaVncINgkc&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=indonesia%20nickel%20ban%20policy%20european%20union&f =false Nickel for Life. (2019). BKPM. https://www.bkpm.go.id/en/publication/detail/news/nickelforlife#:~:text=Nickel%20potential%20in%20Indonesia Nickel monthly price worldwide 2023. (n.d.). Statista. Retrieved May 25, 2023, fromhttps://www.statista.com/statistics/260799/monthly-price-of-nickel-at-lme Organization, W. T. (n.d.-a). WTO Analytical Index GATT 1994 - Article X (Jurisprudence). Retrieved January 10, 2023, from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/gatt1994_art10_jur.pdf Organization, W. T. (n.d.-b). WTO Analytical Index GATT 1994 - Article XI (Practice). Retrieved January 9, 2023, from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/gatt1994_art11_oth.pdf Pickrell, E. (2022, March 31). Russia-Ukraine War Helps Drive Nickel Prices, EV Headaches. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2022/03/31/russia-ukraine-war-helps-drive-nickel-prices ev-headaches/?sh=59f5c7eb57cd Post, T. J. (2022, December 13). Indonesia appeals WTO ruling in nickel dispute against EU. The Jakarta Post. https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2022/12/13/indonesia-appeals-wto-ruling-in nickel-dispute-against-eu.html Prasetyo, E. (n.d.). Questioning Indonesia’s Ban on Export of Ore Policy Under International Investment and Trade Law. PUSHEP. (2021, February 3). Why does Indonesia’s nickel export ban upset the EU? Pusat Studi Hukum Energi Dan Pertambangan. https://pushep.or.id/why-does-indonesias-nickel-export-ban-upset-the eu/ Staff, R. (2022, December 12). Indonesia appeals WTO ruling in nickel dispute against EU.Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/indonedia-eu-nickel-idUSKBN2SW1PR Taufan Adharsyah. (2019, March 20). RI Bakal Rugi Miliaran Dolar Akibat Larangan Sawit Uni Eropa. Market; cnbcindonesia.com. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20190320173153-17- 61904/ri-bakal-rugi-miliaran-dolar-akibat-larangan-sawit-uni-eropa TRADING ECONOMICS | 20 Million Indicators for 196 Countries. (n.d.). Tradingeconomics.com. Retrieved May 25, 2023, from https://tradingeconomics.com/european union/imports/russia/nickel. Uni Eropa | Portal Kementerian Luar Negeri Republik Indonesia. (2018).Kemlu.go.id. https://kemlu.go.id/portal/en/read/149/halaman_list_lainnya/uni-eropa Warburton, E. (2018). Nationalism, developmentalism and politics in Indonesia’s mining sector. Winona, C. V. (n.d.). Indonesia’s Nickel Industry in the Aftermath of Trade Dispute with the European Union. Https://Cwts.ugm.ac.id. Retrieved January 9, 2023, from https://cwts.ugm.ac.id/en/2022/11/03/indonesias-nickel-industry-in-the-aftermath-of-tradedispute-with-the-european-union/#:~:text=Indonesia%20produces%201%20million%20metric WTO | dispute settlement - DS592: Indonesia - Measures Relating to Raw Materials. (n.d.). World Trade Organization. Retrieved January 9, 2023, from https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds592_e.htm WTO panel rules against Indonesia’s export limitations on raw materials. (2022, November 30). European Commission. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_7314 Xinhua. (2022, November 17). China-invested industrial parks bring boom to Indonesia’s nickel industry - Global Times. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1279768.shtml Yeo, R. (n.d.). Europe stainless steel prices fall further, no relief until September – sources – British Stainless Steel Association. British Stainless Steel Association. Retrieved January 10, 2023, from https://bssa.org.uk/europe-stainless-steel-prices-fall-further-no-relief-until-september-sources/
囚徒困境:印尼与欧盟在出口商品争端中的关系
作为全球镍供应链的主要参与者,印度尼西亚实施了镍矿出口禁令,这造成了混乱,其他国家,特别是欧盟国家并没有很好地认识到这一点。本文将分析出口禁令对欧盟国家的影响以及随之而来的行动,包括棕榈油禁令的颁布。从世界贸易组织(WTO)专家组开始,欧盟迫使印尼解除出口禁令的策略尚未成功。采用针锋相对的策略,本文将欧盟的棕榈油禁令确定为对印度尼西亚镍矿石出口禁令的一种报复。尽管以牙还牙的策略通常用于正和博弈,但印尼与欧盟之间的冲突是一场负和博弈,双方都将各自的经济置于危险之中。关键词:镍矿出口禁令,棕榈油禁令,以牙还牙,印尼,欧盟;引用# x0D;& # x0D;亚当,B.;Ahamat, H.(2022)。关贸总协定规则下印尼矿产出口禁令及出口关税合法性。法学评论,6(2),239。& # x0D;https://doi.org/10.28946/slrev.vol6.iss2.1661.pp239 - 253 & # x0D;彭博(2022年9月30日)。出口禁令使印尼莫罗瓦利(Morowali)的镍投资增加了两倍。每周矿业。https://www.miningweekly.com/article/export-ban-triples-nickel-investment-in印度尼西亚-morowali-2022-09-30 
为什么镍价正在上涨,并将继续上涨…(2022年3月28日)。BNamericas.com。https://www.bnamericas.com/en/interviews/why-nickel-prices-are-rising--and-will-remain high#:~:text= %20main%20point%20that%20will 
编码。(2023年1月16日)。2023年印尼棕榈油在欧洲面临的威胁。BPDP。https://www.bpdp.or.id/en/threats-in-europe-for-indonesian-palm-oil-in & # x0D;2023 #: ~:文本= % 20欧盟& # x0D;印尼商品观察:聚焦镍,一种有光明前途的贵重金属|印尼投资。(2022年6月7日). Www.indonesia-Investments.com。https://www.indonesia investments.com/business/business-columns/commodity-watch-indonesia-zooming-in-on-nickel a-valuable-metal-with-a- a- future/item9521 
(2019年5月9日).印尼禁止铁矿石出口后,中国企业制定加工设施计划。Www.spglobal.com。https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news insights/trending/l19hkna_dqquro-fmklifa2 
邓恩,T.,库尔基,M., &;史密斯,S.(2021)。国际关系理论:学科和多样性(第5版,第119页)。牛津大学出版社。& # x0D;欧盟需要镍,但歧视棕榈油。(2021年3月8日).印度尼西亚棕榈油协会(GAPKI IPOA)https://gapki.id/en/news/19858/eu-needs-nickel-but-discriminates-palm-oil欧洲钢铁行业概览2022。(无日期)。欧洲钢铁联盟。欧洲钢铁联盟。检索自2023年1月10日,来源:https://www.eurofer.eu/assets/publications/brochures-booklets-and-factsheets/european steel-in-figures-2022/ europe-steel -in-figures-2022 -v2.pdf 
Fahalmesta, F.(2022)。镍是低碳未来的关键金属(第1-5页)。韩国投资公司Sekuritas印度尼西亚。https://kisi.co.id/storage/researchanalysis/August2022/ZuWoIYdDKyucPZU6Zurg.pdf & # x0D;哈尔姆,我。(2023年1月10日)。2022年镍价过山车。采矿技术。https://www.mining-technology.com/features/nickel-price-surge-2022-markets/ Home, A.(2022年9月30日)。专栏:印尼镍价大涨对价格和定价不利。路透。https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesias-nickel-surge-bad news-price-pricing-2022-09-29/ 
Huber, I.(2021, 12月8日).印度尼西亚的镍产业战略。Www.csis.org。https://www.csis.org/analysis/indonesias-nickel-industrial-strategy & # x0D;(2021年1月15日)。Uni Eropa, Gigih Tolak Sawit Indonesia, Tapi Butuh Nikelnya Halaman等。孔帕。https://money.kompas.com/read/2021/01/15/203805526/uni-eropa-gigih-tolak-sawit indonesia-tapi-butuh-nikelnya吗?页面=所有& # x0D;克拉巴锯,安曼perang dagang uni eropan danam hal lainnya。(2019年3月23日)。BBC印尼新闻。https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/indonesia - 47663602 & # x0D;Lim, B., Kim, H. S., &Park, J.(2021)。印尼出口禁令对LME镍价的隐含解读:来自公告效应的证据。风险,9(5),93。https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9050093 & # x0D;Nainggolan, B., Wijayati, A., Panjaitan, H., Saputra, D. F., &;拉希姆,R.(2021)。ICLHR 2021:第一届国际法律与人权会议论文集,ICLHR 2021, 2021年4月14日至15日,印度尼西亚雅加达。在b谷歌Books。欧洲创新联盟。https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=5a1jEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA226&dq=indonesia+nickel+ban+policy+european+union&ots=qdPe9VZPqw&sig=InXkmX Hqfja4EHtRaVncINgkc&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=印度尼西亚%20nickel%20ban%20policy%20european%20union&f =false 
终身镍币。(2019)。BKPM。 https://www.bkpm.go.id/en/publication/detail/news/nickelforlife: ~:文本潜在% 20 = % 20镍在印度尼西亚% 20 & # x0D;& # x0D;2023年全球镍价。(无日期)。Statista。检索于2023年5月25日,来自https://www.statista.com/statistics/260799/monthly-price-of-nickel-at-lme 
组织,w.t. (n.d.a)。GATT 1994 -第十条(判例)。2023年1月10日检索自https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/gatt1994_art10_jur.pdf 
组织,w.t. (n.d.b)。WTO分析指数GATT 1994 -第11条(实践)。2023年1月9日检索自https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/gatt1994_art11_oth.pdf 
(2022年3月31日)。俄乌战争推动镍价上涨,电动汽车价格上涨。《福布斯》。https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2022/03/31/russia-ukraine-war-helps-drive-nickel-prices ev-headaches / ?sh = 59 f5c7eb57cd & # x0D;(2022年12月13日)。印尼对WTO对欧盟镍争端的裁决提出上诉。雅加达邮报。https://www.thejakartapost.com/business/2022/12/13/indonesia-appeals-wto-ruling-in nicknickel - dispute-agains-eu .html 
p . p .(未注明日期)。质疑印尼根据国际投资和贸易法禁止矿石出口的政策。& # x0D;PUSHEP。(2021, 2月3日)为什么印尼的镍出口禁令令欧盟感到不安?Pusat Studi Hukum Energi Dan Pertambangan。https://pushep.or.id/why-does-indonesias-nickel-export-ban-upset-the eu/ 
(2022年12月12日)。印度尼西亚对WTO对欧盟镍争端的裁决提出上诉。https://www.reuters.com/article/indonedia-eu-nickel-idUSKBN2SW1PR & # x0D;Taufan Adharsyah。(2019年3月20日)国际扶轮社员巴卡尔。鲁吉。美元。& # x0D;市场;cnbcindonesia.com。https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20190320173153-17- 61904/ri-bakal-rugi-miliaran- dollar -akibat-larangan-sawit-uni-eropa 
贸易经济学| 196个国家的2000万个指标。(无日期)。Tradingeconomics.com。2023年5月25日检索自https://tradingeconomics.com/european union/imports/russia/nickel。& # x0D;Uni Eropa |门户网站Kementerian Luar Negeri共和国印度尼西亚。(2018) .Kemlu.go.id。https://kemlu.go.id/portal/en/read/149/halaman_list_lainnya/uni-eropa & # x0D;Warburton, E.(2018)。印尼矿业部门的民族主义、发展主义和政治。& # x0D;薇诺娜,c.v.(未注明日期)。印尼镍业在与欧洲贸易争端后的发展&# x#;联盟。Https://Cwts.ugm.ac.id。摘自https://cwts.ugm.ac.id/en/2022/11/03/indonesias-nickel-industry-in-the-aftermath-of-tradedispute-with-the-european-union/#:~:text=Indonesia%20produces%201%20million%20metric WTO |争端解决- DS592:印度尼西亚-与原材料有关的措施。(无日期)。世界贸易
组织。2023年1月9日检索自https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds592_e.htm 
WTO专家组裁定印尼对原材料的出口限制无效。(2022年11月30日)。欧洲委员会。https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_7314新华社。(2022年11月17日)。& # x0D;中国投资的工业园区为印尼镍业带来繁荣——《环球时报》《环球时报》。https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1279768.shtml Yeo, R.(未注明日期)。欧洲不锈钢价格进一步下跌,直到9月份才会有所缓解-消息来源-英国不锈钢协会。
英国不锈钢协会。2023年1月10日检索自https://bssa.org.uk/europe-stainless-steel-prices-fall-further-no-relief-until-september-sources/
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