Proposal of an Agricultural Vulnerability Stochastic Model for the Rural Population of the Northeastern Region of Brazil

IF 3 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Climate Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI:10.3390/cli11100211

Bruce Kelly da Nóbrega Silva, Rafaela Lisboa Costa, Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva, Mário Henrique Guilherme dos Santos Vanderlei, Helder José Farias da Silva, Jório Bezerra Cabral Júnior, Djailson Silva da Costa Júnior, George Ulguim Pedra, Aldrin Martin Pérez-Marin, Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Agriculture is the world’s main economic activity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this activity is expected to be impacted by drought. In the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB), most agricultural activity is carried out by small rural communities. Local socio-economic data were analyzed using multivariate statistical techniques in this study to determine agricultural sensitivity to drought events (SeA) and agricultural vulnerability to drought extremes (VaED). The climate data used to develop the risk factor (Rdrought) were the drought indicator with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the average number of drought disasters from 1991 to 2012. Conditional probability theory was applied to determine agricultural vulnerability to drought extremes (VaED). Characterization of the risk of agricultural drought using the proposed methodology showed that the rainy season presents high risk values in the central region, covering areas of the states of Ceará, Piauí, Pernambuco and Rio Grande do Norte, as well as all areas of the semi-arid region. The risk ranged from high to medium. The results also indicated that part of the south of Bahia and the west of Pernambuco have areas of extreme agro-climatic sensitivity. Consequently, these states have an extreme degree of climate vulnerability during the region’s rainy season.

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巴西东北地区农村人口农业脆弱性随机模型的建立

农业是世界上主要的经济活动。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会的说法，这种活动预计将受到干旱的影响。在巴西东北地区，大多数农业活动是由小型农村社区进行的。本研究使用多元统计技术分析了当地社会经济数据，以确定农业对干旱事件的敏感性(SeA)和农业对极端干旱的脆弱性(VaED)。建立风险因子(Rdrought)的气候数据为1991 ~ 2012年标准降水指数(SPI)的干旱指标和平均干旱灾害次数。应用条件概率论确定农业极端干旱脆弱性(VaED)。利用所提出的方法对农业干旱风险进行的表征表明，雨季在中部地区呈现高风险值，包括塞埃尔州、Piauí州、伯南布哥州和北里奥格兰德州，以及半干旱地区的所有地区。风险从高到中等不等。结果还表明，巴伊亚州南部和伯南布哥州西部的部分地区具有极端的农业气候敏感性。因此，这些州在该地区雨季的气候脆弱性极高。

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来源期刊

Climate Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

5.40%

发文量

172

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： Climate is an independent, international and multi-disciplinary open access journal focusing on climate processes of the earth, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. The scope of Climate includes: Global climate Regional climate Urban climate Multiscale climate Polar climate Tropical climate Climate downscaling Climate process and sensitivity studies Climate dynamics Climate variability (Interseasonal, interannual to decadal) Feedbacks between local, regional, and global climate change Anthropogenic climate change Climate and monsoon Cloud and precipitation predictions Past, present, and projected climate change Hydroclimate.