Environmental Quality, Energy Consumption and Economic Inequality in China: Smooth Structural Shifts and Causal Linkages

Shengxia XU, Jiahui YANG, Qiang LIU
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Abstract

The space-temporal evolution of economic inequality is examined with Markov chain test method, and the dynamic interrelationships among environmental quality, energy consumption, and economic inequality in China from the province-level are tested by focusing on accounting for structural shifts in causal linkages in this paper. We first employ the Toda-Yamamoto causality framework and then augment it with a Fourier approximation which captures structural changes as a smooth process. The empirical findings show that taking into account smooth structural shifts is important for the causal linkages between economic inequality and energy consumption, and also between environmental quality and energy consumption. The causality analysis with structural changes provides a causal linkage between economic inequality and energy consumption in 26 out 30 provinces and a causal linkage between environmental quality and energy consumption in 7 out 30 provinces, while the quantities are 22 out 30 and 5 out 30 respectively when not accounting for structural shifts. These findings are consistent with the fact that provincial economics in China have experienced structural changes in economy-environment-energy sectors. We also conduct additional analyses which point out that regional and cyclical dependency matter for the causal relationships, and the method of HP filtering can not effectively solve the problem of smooth shifts in economy-environment-energy causality.

中国环境质量、能源消费与经济不平等:平滑结构转移及其因果关系
本文采用马尔可夫链检验方法考察了中国经济不平等的时空演变,并从省际层面考察了环境质量、能源消费与经济不平等之间的动态相互关系,重点考虑了因果关系中的结构性变化。我们首先采用Toda-Yamamoto因果关系框架,然后用傅立叶近似来增强它,该近似将结构变化捕获为平滑过程。实证结果表明,考虑平稳的结构转移对于经济不平等与能源消费之间的因果关系以及环境质量与能源消费之间的因果关系至关重要。考虑结构变化的因果关系分析表明,30个省份中有26个省份的经济不平等与能源消费之间存在因果关系,7个省份的环境质量与能源消费之间存在因果关系,而不考虑结构变化的数量分别为22 / 30和5 / 30。这与中国省际经济在经济-环境-能源领域的结构性变化是一致的。本文还进一步分析了区域和周期依赖关系对因果关系的影响,并指出HP滤波方法不能有效地解决经济-环境-能源因果关系的平稳转移问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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