{"title":"Reservoir operations under uncertainty with moving-horizon approach and ensemble forecast optimization","authors":"Bernhard Becker, Jiyoung Kim, Elena Pummer","doi":"10.1080/23249676.2023.2276948","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"AbstractInflow forecasts are a basic pre-requisite to support decisions for anticipating reservoir operations. The fact that hydrological forecasts are uncertain, noting that reservoirs often fulfill multiple purposes, bears the risk of non-ideal reservoir operation. Optimization techniques can help to identify the best operational scheme under given inflow. To address the forecast uncertainty, operators can repeat optimization (moving horizon approach) and optimize for inflow forecast ensembles. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of how the different methods work, how to interpret the results and what the effect of user choices on the optimization results is. The moving-horizon approach and three ensemble optimization methods were applied on a hydropower reservoir in Norway under flood conditions. The functional principle of each method is explained, and advantages and drawbacks of the different methods are discussed with the help of performance indicators.Keywords: Reservoir optimizationflood forecastingensemble forecastRTC-Toolsmodel predictive controlstochastic optimization Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).","PeriodicalId":51911,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/23249676.2023.2276948","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"WATER RESOURCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
AbstractInflow forecasts are a basic pre-requisite to support decisions for anticipating reservoir operations. The fact that hydrological forecasts are uncertain, noting that reservoirs often fulfill multiple purposes, bears the risk of non-ideal reservoir operation. Optimization techniques can help to identify the best operational scheme under given inflow. To address the forecast uncertainty, operators can repeat optimization (moving horizon approach) and optimize for inflow forecast ensembles. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of how the different methods work, how to interpret the results and what the effect of user choices on the optimization results is. The moving-horizon approach and three ensemble optimization methods were applied on a hydropower reservoir in Norway under flood conditions. The functional principle of each method is explained, and advantages and drawbacks of the different methods are discussed with the help of performance indicators.Keywords: Reservoir optimizationflood forecastingensemble forecastRTC-Toolsmodel predictive controlstochastic optimization Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
期刊介绍:
JAWER’s paradigm-changing (online only) articles provide directly applicable solutions to water engineering problems within the whole hydrosphere (rivers, lakes groundwater, estuaries, coastal and marine waters) covering areas such as: integrated water resources management and catchment hydraulics hydraulic machinery and structures hydraulics applied to water supply, treatment and drainage systems (including outfalls) water quality, security and governance in an engineering context environmental monitoring maritime hydraulics ecohydraulics flood risk modelling and management water related hazards desalination and re-use.