Lithuanian economy, 1919–1940: stagnant but resilient. The first inter-war GDP time-series estimates and their implications

Abstract

This paper presents the first attempt to estimate the GDP time series for inter-war Lithuania, tracking the country's annual performance from 1919 until its incorporation into the USSR in 1940, and situating Lithuania within the wider East-Central European economic landscape. The research provides robust evidence that, contrary to prior beliefs, Lithuania was a stagnant economy, resembling other newly established agricultural states such as Estonia and Poland in terms of its GDP growth rate. By 1940, Lithuania remained on the economic periphery of Europe, yet it demonstrated significant resilience during the Great Depression, with no contraction in its GDP per capita between 1929 and 1938. This paper helps fill one of the remaining gaps in Europe's historical national accounts, making it an essential resource for analysing the divergent growth patterns in East-Central Europe.