Long-term statistics of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea and meteorological features related to wind wave extremes in the Gulf of Gdańsk

Abstract

The goal of this study is to describe wind wave climate and wave extremes of the Gulf of Gdańsk in the southern Baltic Sea and associated meteorological conditions over the Baltic Sea. We obtain the characteristic features of 34 severe historical storms in the Gulf of Gdańsk during the period 1958–2001 and link them with extreme significant wave heights hindcast for five grid points in this gulf. The long-term statistics of atmospheric pressure systems over central and northern Europe, and the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean are derived from a 44-year REMO reanalysis database. A link between the mean, minimum and variability range of atmospheric pressure has been quantified. In general, the higher the mean pressure the smaller its variability and vice versa. Long-term characteristic features of winds over the Baltic Sea have been estimated from the REMO database. Strong winds directions vary from W, WSW to SW in the southern Baltic to more southerly SSW directions in the northern part of the Baltic Sea. The Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis shows that more than 50% of the variability in the atmospheric pressure in the Baltic Sea can be explained by the first EOF mode. The first four EOF modes can reproduce above 90% variability of the hindcast pressure time series. Statistical properties of the hindcast significant wave height over the Gulf of Gdańsk are computed based on the 44-year HIPOCAS database. All the computed statistics of wave heights reveal a very strong sheltering effect caused by the Hel Peninsula.