Analysis and Forecast of GDP in Shaoguan City Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

: GDP is a measure of a region's economic development, industrial structure, economic vitality, etc. It is of great significance to analyze the development of a region's GDP and predict its future development trend. The ARIMA model is an important model in time series analysis and forecast. In this paper, the GDP data of Shaoguan City from 1978 to 2019 are selected for empirical analysis using SPSS 25.0 software. After the smoothing test and processing the original data, the ARIMA (0, 2, 0) model is established through steps such as determining model parameters and model testing. Then, a comparison is made between the real GDP data and the data predicted by the ARIMA model from 2020 to 2022. It is found that the relative error values between the model prediction results and the real data are small, which indicates that the model fits well. Finally, the GDP data of Shaoguan City in the next three years are predicted to provide certain references and suggestions for relevant departments to plan for the future urban economic development of Shaoguan.