ST-GWLR: combining geographically weighted logistic regression and spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis to explore the effect of built environment on traffic crash

Abstract

Road traffic crashes are becoming thorny issues being faced worldwide. Traffic crashes are spatiotemporal events and the research on the spatiotemporal patterns and variation trends of traffic crashes has been carried out. However, the impact of built environment on traffic crash spatiotemporal trends has not received much attention. Moreover, the spatial non-stationarity between the variation trends of traffic crashes and their influencing factors is usually neglected. To make up for the lack of analysis of built environment factors influencing spatiotemporal hotspot trends in traffic crashes, this paper proposed a method of “ST-GWLR” for analyzing the influence of built environment factors on spatiotemporal hotspot trends of traffic crashes by combining the spatiotemporal hotspot trend analysis and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) modeling methods. Firstly, the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends were explored using the space-time cube model, hotspot analysis, and Mann-Kendall trend test. Then, the GWLR was introduced to capture the spatial non-stationarity neglected by the classic Global Logistic Regression (GLR) model, to improve the accuracy of the model estimation. GWLR model is used for the first time to analyze the significant local correlation between the traffic crash spatiotemporal hotspot trends and the built environment factors, to accurately and effectively identify the built environment factors that have significant influences on the hotspot trends of traffic crashes. The performance of the GWLR models and GLR models was examined and compared sufficiently. The results showed that the proposed ST-GWLR, which captured spatial non-stationarity, performed better than the classic GLR combined with spatiotemporal analysis, and improved the prediction accuracy of the models by 14.9%, 13.9%, and 15.1%, respectively. There were significant local correlations between intensifying hotspots and persistent hotspots of traffic crashes and the built environment factors. The findings of this paper have positive implications for traffic safety management and urban built environment planning.