How to consolidate quickly: The cases of Algeria and Tunisia

Abstract

AbstractSeveral governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have used pandemic measures to silence opposition voices and curb human rights. This article delvers deeper into this dynamic in Algeria and Tunisia by systematically analyzing regime use of preexisting authoritarian legal frameworks to target perceived regime opponents. Notably, unlike other regimes in the MENA, COVID-19 pandemic-specific laws (such as curfew violations) were not heavily relied on to arrest and prosecute prominent opponents. Instead, foundational laws that restrict free speech and assembly with intentionally vague language, which often date back decades, were reused. Several of these laws were enhanced during the pandemic to grant the executive more leeway in their use and expanded fines and prison sentences. Interestingly, despite the very public use of these laws, regimes in both countries have maintained relatively high public approval ratings. This is remarkable, given that past autocrats were overthrown for similar abuses. This demonstrates that pandemics grant aspiring authoritarian regimes greater leeway in the use of general legal mechanisms to restrict free speech and assembly. These kinds of crises can help maintain approval ratings despite extensive oppressive action by the state. This was especially true for Tunisia, where it appears that the pandemic created a rally-’round-the-flag effect that allowed the executive to consolidate his power in a dramatic democratic backslide. Notes1 Data were pulled from Arab Barometer Waves 5 (2019), 6a and 6b (2020), 6c (2021), and 7 (2022). For ease of interpretation, four part responses were aggregated into two general Satisfied/Dissatisfied, Good/Bad, More trust/Less trust from their original (Completely satisfied/Satisfied/Dissatisfied/Completely dissatisfied, Very good/Good/Bad/Very bad, A great deal of trust/Quite a lot of trust/Not a lot of trust/No trust at all). Responses under Overall Satisfaction with Government Performance in Waves 6 and 7 were combined with responses under Satisfaction with the Current Government's Performance: Providing Security and Order in Wave 5. Both were rated Very good/Good/Bad/Very bad. Available at: https://www.arabbarometer.org/.Additional informationNotes on contributorsSammy BadranSammy Badran's research focuses on Middle East and North African (MENA) politics. He has published articles in the British Journal of Middle East Studies, Journal of North African Studies, and the Journal of International Women’s Studies. Badran’s book, Killing Contention Demobilization in Morocco during the Arab Spring (2022), investigates the impact of the 2011 constitutional reforms, parliamentary elections, and ideological cleavages on protest levels in Morocco. He an assistant professor of international studies at the American University of Sharjah, UAE.Brian TurnbullBrian Turnbull is an assistant professor of instruction in the Department of Sociology with interdisciplinary interests in social change, political sociology, and qualitative methodology. Based on his research, he is working on a book proposal titled, Evading Gender Quotas: Reservations and Proxies in India, which uses these interview narra- tives to assess the phenomenon of men who have sidelined and essentially proxied the women elected to gender- reserved seats and restricted the ability of the quota to establish substantive representation for women. His work has appeared in Politics and Gender and Qualitative Research.