An empirical study on assessment of trend analysis: Food grain production in India

Abstract

Considering the importance of the food grains to be specified-rice, wheat, coarse cereals, and pulses-is vital in developing the Indian economy. This paper carries out change point detection and trend analysis for the annual historical series of food grains in India. The change points were identified by the methods of the Pettitt?s test (PT), the Buishand?s range test (BRT), and the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT). On the other hand, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to determine the presence and absence of trends in food grain production, and their slopes were assessed by the Sen?s slope estimator. The change point analysis result shows significant change points for food grains at a 95% level. The discrete change points were observed from 1982 to 2009, but the ideal change point, i.e., 1987, was captured in all food grains. In India?s history, agricultural production in the year 1987 was vulnerable due to drought, and thus it is strong evidence of the need to consider methods based on proven facts. The MK test results reveal that the trend in food grain production was statistically significant and had an upward direction in all three segmentation periods after 1987.