Short- and long-term temporal network prediction based on network memory

Abstract

Abstract Temporal networks are networks whose topology changes over time. Two nodes in a temporal network are connected at a discrete time step only if they have a contact/interaction at that time. The classic temporal network prediction problem aims to predict the temporal network one time step ahead based on the network observed in the past of a given duration. This problem has been addressed mostly via machine learning algorithms, at the expense of high computational costs and limited interpretation of the underlying mechanisms that form the networks. Hence, we propose to predict the connection of each node pair one step ahead based on the connections of this node pair itself and of node pairs that share a common node with this target node pair in the past. The concrete design of our two prediction models is based on the analysis of the memory property of real-world physical networks, i.e., to what extent two snapshots of a network at different times are similar in topology (or overlap). State-of-the-art prediction methods that allow interpretation are considered as baseline models. In seven real-world physical contact networks, our methods are shown to outperform the baselines in both prediction accuracy and computational complexity. They perform better in networks with stronger memory. Importantly, our models reveal how the connections of different types of node pairs in the past contribute to the connection estimation of a target node pair. Predicting temporal networks like physical contact networks in the long-term future beyond short-term i.e., one step ahead is crucial to forecast and mitigate the spread of epidemics and misinformation on the network. This long-term prediction problem has been seldom explored. Therefore, we propose basic methods that adapt each aforementioned prediction model to address classic short-term network prediction problem for long-term network prediction task. The prediction quality of all adapted models is evaluated via the accuracy in predicting each network snapshot and in reproducing key network properties. The prediction based on one of our models tends to have the highest accuracy and lowest computational complexity.