NONLINEAR EFFECTS OF CRUDE OIL DEPENDENCY ON FOOD PRICES IN CHINA: EVIDENCE FROM QUANTILE-ON-QUANTILE APPROACH

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 Business, Management and Accounting

Journal of Business Economics and Management Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI:10.3846/jbem.2023.20192

Ying Yu, Chuqi Peng, Muhammad Zakaria, Hamid Mahmood, Samia Khalid

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Abstract

The repercussions of disruptions in the global crude oil market have a substantial influence on economies worldwide. Oil shocks are considered important estimators of many economic variables. The current research examines the effects of oil price shocks on food prices in China using monthly data from 2000M1 to 2021M12. The estimation is done using the Quantile on Quantile (QQ) estimation technique. The BDS test is used to test nonlinear dependence in variables. The results of this test confirm the presence of nonlinear dependence in variables. The estimated results of the QQ technique suggest a strong association between oil prices and food prices nexus in China with significant disparities across the quantiles. The lower and medium quantiles show a poor negative effect of crude oil prices on food prices. Nevertheless, it has been shown that there exists a strong positive correlation in the higher quantiles of the distribution, which suggests that an increase in global oil prices directly impacts the costs of food. The outcome of the study offers significant policy recommendations aimed at mitigating the detrimental impact of oil prices on food prices in China.

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中国原油依赖对食品价格的非线性影响:来自分位数对分位数方法的证据

全球原油市场中断的后果对全球经济产生了重大影响。石油冲击被认为是许多经济变量的重要估计因素。目前的研究使用2000年至2012年的月度数据来检验油价冲击对中国食品价格的影响。使用分位数对分位数(QQ)估计技术进行估计。BDS测试用于测试变量间的非线性相关性。该试验的结果证实了变量之间存在非线性依赖关系。QQ技术的估计结果表明，在中国，石油价格和食品价格之间存在很强的关联，但在分位数之间存在显著差异。中低分位数显示，原油价格对食品价格的负面影响不大。然而，研究表明，在较高的分位数分布中存在强烈的正相关关系，这表明全球油价上涨直接影响食品成本。研究结果提供了重要的政策建议，旨在减轻石油价格对中国食品价格的不利影响。

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来源期刊

Journal of Business Economics and Management Multiple-

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

3.80%

发文量

审稿时长

15 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Business Economics and Management is a peer-reviewed journal which publishes original research papers. The objective of the journal is to provide insights into business and strategic management issues through the publication of high quality research from around the world. We particularly focus on research undertaken in Western Europe but welcome perspectives from other regions of the world that enhance our knowledge in this area. The journal publishes in the following areas of research: Global Business Transition Issues Economic Growth and Development Economics of Organizations and Industries Finance and Investment Strategic Management Marketing Innovations Public Administration.