Which month to give a birth? The analysis on birth seasonality of China

Cuiling Zhang, Danyin Wang, Xuying Zhang
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Abstract

Abstract A series of medical and biological studies have identified a strong link between the season during which a child is born and early childhood development and adult health. While providing an explanation for the seasonal determinants of birth remains one of the key challenges for demographers, understanding seasonal birth peaks and troughs can inform both public health planning and efforts to prevent childhood diseases. The seasonality of births varies across and within countries. Nonetheless, there has been scant research into the seasonality of births in China. This study takes an in depth look at the seasonal fluctuations in China’s births since 1960 and investigates the effects on seasonality of several key factors such as parity, residence (urban or rural area), and changes to fertility policies. Traditionally, winter has been the peak season of births in China, while spring and summer have been lean seasons, a pattern which is quite different than patterns in Europe and the United States. After 1990, the sweeping implementation of one-child policy and the wider use of modern contraceptives among Chinese women prompted a fundamental shift in the seasonality of births, with the deviation of births from month to month gradually diminishing over time. People's self-control may serve as a key determinant accounting for such seasonal changes. First births exhibit pronounced and steady seasonality, while second and subsequent births follow a vague seasonal pattern, suggesting that later births are more likely affected by self-choice and self-intervention. The analysis also reveals that the monthly distribution pattern of second births experienced a dramatic change following the roll-out of the selective-two-child policy and the Universal Two-child Policy in 2014 and 2016, changes that reflects the adjustments people made to achieve their fertility plans under the new policy.
应该在哪个月生孩子?中国人口出生季节性分析
一系列医学和生物学研究已经确定了孩子出生季节与儿童早期发育和成人健康之间的密切联系。虽然解释出生的季节性决定因素仍然是人口统计学家面临的主要挑战之一,但了解季节性出生高峰和低谷可以为公共卫生规划和预防儿童疾病的努力提供信息。不同国家和国家内部的出生季节性各不相同。尽管如此,关于中国出生季节性的研究却很少。本研究深入研究了1960年以来中国出生人口的季节性波动,并调查了几个关键因素对季节性的影响,如胎次、居住地(城市或农村地区)以及生育政策的变化。传统上,冬季是中国的生育高峰,而春夏是淡季,这种模式与欧美的模式大不相同。1990年以后,独生子女政策的全面实施和现代避孕措施在中国妇女中的广泛使用,促使出生季节性发生了根本性的变化,随着时间的推移,每月出生的偏差逐渐减少。人们的自我控制能力可能是造成这种季节变化的关键决定因素。第一胎表现出明显而稳定的季节性,而第二胎和随后的生育则遵循模糊的季节性模式,这表明后来的生育更有可能受到自我选择和自我干预的影响。分析还显示,在2014年和2016年推出选择性二孩政策和全面二孩政策后,二胎的月度分布模式发生了巨大变化,这些变化反映了人们为实现新政策下的生育计划而做出的调整。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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