Decision-Making Method for High-speed Rail Early Warning System in Complex Earthquake Situations

IF 2.7 4区 工程技术 Q2 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Minjia Tan, Qizhou Hu, Yikai Wu, Xin Fang
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Abstract

Abstract To address the shortcomings in decision-making methods for ground motion threshold warning models in High-speed rail (HSR) earthquake early warning systems (HSREEWs), we propose a dual judgment method and corresponding early warning process for earthquake early warning decisions based on joint peak ground acceleration (PGA) and complex earthquake environmental risk evaluation (ERE) values. First, we analyze the characteristics of four complex earthquake environments based on the characteristics of HSR operating environments. Second, we establish an earthquake environmental risk evaluation index system and propose an adversarial interpretive structure modeling method-based complex earthquake situation evaluation model (AISM-based ESEM). The AISM method firstly evaluates the proximity by the TOPSIS method, then effectively rank targets with fuzzy attributes through opposite hierarchical extraction rules without sacrificing system functionality. Since PGA can reflect the current size of earthquake energy, combining PGA thresholds with ESEM-derived values of ERE can effectively determine the risk status of each train and make decisions on the most appropriate alarm form and control measures for that status. Finally, case analysis results under the background of Wenchuan Earthquake show that the new early warning decision-making method accurately assesses environmental risks in affected areas and provides corresponding warning levels as a supplement to existing HSREEWs warning models.
复杂地震情况下高速铁路预警系统的决策方法
摘要针对高铁地震预警系统中地震动阈值预警模型决策方法的不足,提出了一种基于联合峰值地加速度(PGA)和复杂地震环境风险评价(ERE)值的地震预警决策双判断方法和相应的预警流程。首先,根据高铁运行环境的特点,分析了四种复杂地震环境的特征。其次,建立了地震环境风险评价指标体系,提出了基于对抗解释结构建模方法的复杂地震态势评价模型(AISM-based ESEM)。该方法首先通过TOPSIS法对目标的接近度进行评价,然后在不牺牲系统功能的前提下,通过相反的层次提取规则对具有模糊属性的目标进行有效排序。由于PGA可以反映当前地震能量的大小,将PGA阈值与esem导出的ERE值相结合,可以有效地确定每列列车的风险状态,并针对该状态决定最合适的报警形式和控制措施。最后,以汶川地震为背景的案例分析结果表明,新的预警决策方法能够准确地评估灾区的环境风险,并提供相应的预警级别,作为现有HSREEWs预警模型的补充。
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来源期刊
Transportation Safety and Environment
Transportation Safety and Environment TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
13.60%
发文量
32
审稿时长
10 weeks
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