Disentangling COVID-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

IF 6.3 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI:10.1257/mac.20210071

Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and persistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent of the average and historical variability in mobility, cases, and deaths worldwide. The policy trade-off associated to nonpharmaceutical interventions is 1 pp less economic mobility per day for 8 percent fewer deaths after 3 months. (JEL C43, H51, I12, I18, O15)

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解开COVID-19，经济流动性和遏制政策冲击

我们研究了COVID-19、经济流动性和遏制政策之间的动态相互作用。我们对44个国家的日常数据使用贝叶斯面板结构向量自回归，通过传统和叙事符号限制来识别。我们发现，发病率冲击和遏制冲击对流动性、发病率和死亡率具有持续一到两个月的巨大而持久的影响。这些冲击是大流行的主要驱动因素，解释了全球范围内流动、病例和死亡的平均和历史变化的20%至60%。与非药物干预相关的政策权衡是，3个月后，每天经济流动性降低1个百分点，死亡率降低8%。(jel c43, h51, i12, i18, o15)

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来源期刊

American Economic Journal-Macroeconomics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

1.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics focuses on studies of aggregate fluctuations and growth, and the role of policy in that context. Such studies often borrow from and interact with research in other fields, such as monetary theory, industrial organization, finance, labor economics, political economy, public finance, international economics, and development economics. To the extent that they make a contribution to macroeconomics, papers in these fields are also welcome.