Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy at the national and regional levels from February 2020 to March 2022

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic initially hit Italy at the end of February 2020. In the following two years, there were about 13 million diagnosed cases and more than 150000 deaths. For this period, we have performed a study that evaluates and compares the impacts on public health of the SARS-CoV-2 waves at the national and regional levels. Based on contagion trends, we considered four pandemic waves. For each wave, we also analyzed a restricted time interval of one month around the peak. We found an underestimation of diagnosed cases and a saturation of available intensive care unit (ICU) beds during the first wave. The second wave had a more significant impact on public health, highlighting that the system of physical distancing measures was less effective than the lockdown implemented during the first wave. Instead, during the first three peaks, the incidence of ICU bed occupancy was superimposable. In general, odds ratios of case fatality rate showed a more significant risk for males than females from the age of thirty onwards. We verified that regional responses to the health emergency were not homogeneous. In particular, in contrast with the national temporal trend, some regions showed a significant increase in the incidence of deaths. Furthermore, we found positive correlations between availability and occupancy of hospital beds from the second wave onward. In contrast, a significant correlation was verified for ICU bed occupancy and deaths only during the second peak. In light of what happened, it would be desirable to plan an increase in public health funds for new emergencies and issue a rigorous plan to face pandemics.