The Impact of External Debt on Human Capital Development and GDP Growth in HIPCs: a Comprehensive Approach

IF 0.3 Q4 ECONOMICS

Statistika-Statistics and Economy Journal Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI:10.54694/stat.2023.10

Sisay Demissew Beyene, Balázs Kotosz

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Abstract

The growth theorists argue that human capital development/accumulation (HCD/A) is vital for economic growth. However, the level of external debt accumulation determines HCA and its effect on economic growth. Besides, the impact of external debt on growth is still debatable. Further, the external debt-growth relationship could be non-linear instead of linear, and external debt can affect growth through the HCD channel. Therefore, this study aims to look at the impact of foreign debt on HCD and growth in heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) employing seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and other alternative simultaneous equations models (SEMs) from 1990–2017. The result indicates the link between foreign debt and HCD is negative and non-linear, but only non-linearity is observed between foreign debt and growth. Besides, external debt affects HIPCs growth through the HCD channel. Therefore, the study recommends essentializing solid macroeconomic policies, strengthening institutional performance, appropriate debt management strategies, and investing borrowed funds in productive projects.

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外债对重债穷国人力资本发展和国内生产总值增长的影响:一种综合方法

增长理论家认为，人力资本发展/积累(HCD/A)对经济增长至关重要。然而，外债积累水平决定了HCA及其对经济增长的影响。此外，外债对经济增长的影响仍值得商榷。此外，外债与增长的关系可能是非线性的，而不是线性的，外债可以通过HCD渠道影响增长。因此，本研究旨在研究外债对重债穷国(HIPCs)的HCD和增长的影响，采用看似不相关的回归(SUR)和其他替代联立方程模型(SEMs)，从1990年到2017年。结果表明，外债与HCD之间存在负非线性关系，但外债与经济增长之间仅存在非线性关系。此外，外债通过HCD渠道影响重债穷国的增长。因此，研究报告建议实行坚实的宏观经济政策，加强机构绩效，适当的债务管理战略，并将借来的资金投资于生产性项目。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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