Forecasting pearl millet production and prices in Rajasthan, India: An ARIMA approach

Abstract

Pearl millet holds significant agricultural importance in India, particularly within arid and semi-arid regions of Rajasthan. In India, Rajasthan state leads global Pearl millet production with 5.15 Mt in 2022-23 and cultivated across 4.51 Mha. Although, Rajasthan tops in both production and cultivated area in India, the price and non-price factors lead to the fluctuation in prices and production of pearl millet. Pearl millet prices have fluctuated over many years and also experienced climate change during the season and after the production of pearl millet. Forecasting prices and production will help the farmers to make decisions on marketing, and acreage allocation and to sustain the production of pearl millet. Therefore, the present study aims to forecast pearl millet prices and production in Rajasthan. We used time series data comprising average monthly prices of pearl millet to forecast up to December 2024 and annual production data to forecast up to the year 2029-30. The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models were employed to forecast pearl millet production and prices. The best-fitted model was ARIMA (0, 1, 2) with drift for pearl millet production and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1) for pearl millet prices. The findings suggest a projected increase in pearl millet prices and production also shows an increasing trend in Rajasthan.