Conditional Political Cycles in Africa: Myth or Reality?

IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS
Christine O Strong
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Abstract

Abstract This study tests for the presence of political cycles in Africa. Through an analysis encompassing data from 30 African nations over the period 1980–2020, we ask whether political incumbents in Africa rely on monetary and fiscal policy variables to improve their reelection prospects. In particular, we test for the existence of ‘conditional political cycles’, namely, we show that both government consumption and money growth go up during an election year, even when we account for critical institutional factors such as government attributes and political regimes. Our findings reveal a noticeable upswing in both government consumption and money growth during election years, a trend that holds consistent even after controlling for key institutional variables. Further exploration, however, unveils that this phenomenon is nuanced, particularly in the case of political monetary cycles; in particular, our analysis shows that when an African country is classified as a democracy during an election year, broad money falls. But although robust institutions can curtail the intensity of political monetary cycles, they do not exert a similar effect on fiscal variables. Finally, we test for the presence of ‘political credit cycles’ and find no empirical evidence that African incumbents manipulate credit markets to bolster their electoral outcomes.
非洲有条件的政治周期:神话还是现实?
摘要本研究检验了非洲政治周期的存在。通过对1980年至2020年期间30个非洲国家的数据进行分析,我们询问非洲的政治现任者是否依赖货币和财政政策变量来改善他们的连任前景。特别是,我们测试了“有条件的政治周期”的存在,也就是说,我们表明,即使我们考虑到政府属性和政治制度等关键制度因素,政府消费和货币增长在选举年也会上升。我们的研究结果显示,在选举年,政府消费和资金增长都明显上升,即使在控制了关键的制度变量之后,这一趋势也保持一致。然而,进一步的探索揭示了这种现象是微妙的,特别是在政治货币周期的情况下;特别是,我们的分析表明,当一个非洲国家在选举年被归类为民主国家时,广义资金就会下降。但是,尽管健全的制度可以减少政治货币周期的强度,但它们对财政变量却没有类似的影响。最后,我们测试了“政治信贷周期”的存在,发现没有经验证据表明非洲现任者操纵信贷市场以支持他们的选举结果。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
21
期刊介绍: The Journal of African Economies is a vehicle to carry rigorous economic analysis, focused entirely on Africa, for Africans and anyone interested in the continent - be they consultants, policymakers, academics, traders, financiers, development agents or aid workers.
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