Analysis of megatrends for the purpose of strategic forecasting of companies in Serbia

Abstract

Megatrends represent a group of trends or phenomena of social, economic, and technological nature that develop gradually, ultimately making their elimination impossible. At a global level, companies are confronted with increasingly shorter business longevity, largely caused by the impact of megatrends. Considering that the influence of megatrends is omnipresent, and that their effects cannot be completely eliminated, the only option remaining is for management to provide an adequate response to their emergence, which simultaneously requires awareness of current and future megatrend developments. A specific focus of this study is examining the prevalence of strategic foresight and analysis of megatrends within a sample of companies with the highest revenues according to the Serbian Business Registers Agency (SBRA). The research was conducted through questionnaires. Furthermore, the subject of analysis is determining the extent to which companies in Serbia are exposed to megatrends based on relevant indicators. By weighing the defined indicators, final indicators for key megatrends have been established, through which the strength of megatrend impact in Serbia has been interpreted. If there is a desire for long-term sustainable business operations, there is a need to also be aware of future opportunities and potential threats posed by megatrends. The goal of conducting research in this domain is to raise awareness about the challenges that companies will face in the foreseeable future and thereby gain insights into the areas of business where adaptations are necessary.