Forecasting the rate of socio-economic development of healthcare in the Russian Federation taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The paper provides a forecast of the socio-economic development of healthcare before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and taking into account its impact. The study is divided into two blocks: 2009-2018 with a forecast up to 2022 (alternative reality, where the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was not taken into account) and 2011-2020 with a forecast up to 2024 (actual reality). For this purpose, a methodology for assessing the pace of healthcare development has been developed and 126 forecast graphs have been built. A comparative analysis of the forecasts for the two periods according to the developed formula mathematically proves that the COVID-19 pandemic was a bifurcation point that launched the mechanism of the "black swan" theory and worsened all the emerging trends in the socio-economic development of healthcare in the Russian Federation over the past 10 years!