Integrating ecosystem services and ecological risks for urban ecological zoning: a case study of Wuhan City, China

IF 3 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI:10.1080/10807039.2023.2265990

Xufeng Cui, Liuyi Huang

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Abstract

AbstractThe global ecosystem is facing a severe situation, with increasing ecological risks threatening ecosystem protection. The research is conducted based on land use data and socio-economic data of Wuhan during the three periods of 2000, 2010, and 2020. Various models including the ecosystem service value model, ecosystem risk model, bivariate spatial autocorrelation model, and CA-Markov model are employed to calculate the spatial and temporal evolution as well as the correlation of ecosystem service values and ecological risks in Wuhan City over the past 20 years. Moreover, the study aims to predict the ecosystem service values and ecological risks for the year 2030 and establish an ecological zoning framework accordingly. The results show that: (1) The value of Wuhan’s ecosystem services show a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in the past 20 years. (2) The ecological risks of Wuhan show an overall upward trend, and the ecological risks in the study area are generally characterized by “high in the middle and low around”. (3) There is a significant positive spatial correlation between the value of ecosystem services and ecological risks in Wuhan. The overall ecological risk in the study area in 2030 is relatively alleviated compared with the previous two periods, and the ecological zones with a larger proportion are “low-low” and “low-high” zones. This study can provide critical information for building resilient cities.Keywords: urban ecologyCA-Markov modelspatial distributionrisk predictionresilient cities Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

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城市生态区划中生态系统服务与生态风险的整合——以武汉市为例

摘要全球生态系统面临严峻形势，生态风险日益增加，对生态系统保护构成威胁。研究基于武汉市2000年、2010年和2020年3个时期的土地利用数据和社会经济数据。采用生态系统服务价值模型、生态系统风险模型、二元空间自相关模型、CA-Markov模型等模型，计算了武汉市近20 a生态系统服务价值与生态风险的时空演变及其相关性。并对2030年的生态系统服务价值和生态风险进行了预测，建立了相应的生态区划框架。结果表明:①近20 a武汉市生态系统服务价值呈现先减少后增加的趋势;②武汉市生态风险总体呈上升趋势，研究区生态风险总体呈现“中高周围低”的特征。(3)武汉市生态系统服务价值与生态风险存在显著的空间正相关关系。2030年研究区整体生态风险较前两个时期有所缓解，占比较大的生态区为“低-低”和“低-高”区。该研究可为建设韧性城市提供重要信息。关键词:城市生态ca -马尔可夫模型空间分布风险预测弹性城市披露声明作者未发现潜在利益冲突

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来源期刊

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

9.60

自引率

2.30%

发文量

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Human and Ecological Risk Assessment provides a resource for professionals researching and assessing environmental hazards to both humans and ecological systems. The editors expect papers published to be original, of sound science, purposeful for risk analysis (assessment, communication, management) and related areas, well written (in English), and a contribution to the scientific literature. The journal''s emphasis is on publication of papers that contribute to improvements in human and ecological health. The journal is an international, fully peer-reviewed publication that publishes eight issues annually. The journal''s scope includes scientific and technical information and critical analysis in the following areas: -Quantitative Risk Assessment- Comparative Risk Assessment- Integrated Human & Ecological Risk Assessment- Risk Assessment Applications to Human & Ecosystems Health- Exposure Assessment- Environmental Fate Assessment- Multi-Media Assessment- Hazard Assessment- Environmental Epidemiology- Statistical Models and Methods- Methods Development/Improvement- Toxicokinetics Modeling- Animal to Human Extrapolation- Risk Perception/Communication- Risk Management- Regulatory Issues