Spatio‐temporal analysis of trends in annual maximum rainfall in the North‐West of Algeria: Comparative analysis of recent and old non‐parametric methods

IF 1.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Water and Environment Journal Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI:10.1111/wej.12905

Benali Benzater, Abdelkader Elouissi, Sahnoun Fellah, Anouar Hachemaoui

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract This article examines the spatial variability of extreme precipitation trends in northwestern Algeria (Macta) and compares the results obtained from the four recent and old non‐parametric methods. A dataset of annual maximum precipitation consisting of 41 observation years (1970–2010) and 41 rain gauges was used. The results of the four old and new methods used to detect trends, Mann–Kendall (MK), Bravais–Pearson (BP), Spearman (SR) and innovative trend analysis (ITA), show good agreement. They revealed that a decrease in the trend of annual maximum precipitation was detected during the first period (1970–1992) with −44% (MK), −61% (BP), −68% (SR) and −76% (ITA). On the other hand, in the second period (1993–2010), a total shift occurred in which a significant increase in annual maximum precipitation trends was observed with +63% (BP), +34% (MK and SR) and +93% (ITA). These results show the ability of ITA to detect partial trends that the other three tests do not allow. Our results allow decision‐makers to properly design adaptation strategies in the face of the intensification of these extreme events.

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阿尔及利亚西北部年最大降雨量趋势的时空分析:最新和旧非参数方法的比较分析

摘要本文研究了阿尔及利亚西北部(Macta)极端降水趋势的空间变异性，并比较了最近和旧的四种非参数方法的结果。利用由41个观测年(1970—2010)和41个雨量计组成的年最大降水量数据集。四种用于检测趋势的新旧方法，Mann-Kendall (MK)， Bravais-Pearson (BP)， Spearman (SR)和创新趋势分析(ITA)的结果显示出良好的一致性。结果表明，1970—1992年，年最大降水量呈下降趋势，MK为- 44%，BP为- 61%，SR为- 68%，ITA为- 76%。另一方面，第二期(1993-2010年)发生了一次总转变，年最大降水趋势显著增加，BP +63%， MK和SR +34%， ITA +93%。这些结果表明ITA能够检测到其他三个测试不允许的部分趋势。我们的研究结果使决策者能够在面对这些极端事件的加剧时适当地设计适应策略。

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来源期刊

Water and Environment Journal 环境科学-湖沼学

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

18-36 weeks

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