Step Function Intervention Analysis Model to Estimate Number of Aircraft Passengers in Minangkabau International Airport

Abstract

Pandemic of Covid-19 had a quite big impact in air transportation. Minangkabau International Airport (BIM) has also felt the impact of this pandemic, namely a drastic decrease in the number of airplane passengers or there was an intervention event. Forecasting was carried out in this study to obtain an intervention model that will be used for forecast the next 12 months and predict how long the effect of the intervention will last for avoid further losses due to the continued decline in the number of passengers. The resultsof forecasting showed that the Seasonal ARIMA model (0,1,1)(1,1,1)12 b = 0, s = 8, r = 1 is the best model that can be used for forecasting data containing interventions. This is evidenced by the small MAPE of 36.34% so that the model is feasible to use because the accuracy is quite high and close to the actual value.