Analysis of transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 under seasonal change

IF 4.3 3区 材料科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
Jian Wang, Wenjing Jiang, Mengdie Yang, Wei Shao
{"title":"Analysis of transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 under seasonal change","authors":"Jian Wang, Wenjing Jiang, Mengdie Yang, Wei Shao","doi":"10.1142/s0218348x2350113x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we explore whether the activity of SARS-CoV-2 was associated with seasonality. MF-DFA model is utilized to calculate multifractal strength and multifractal complexity to evaluate the change state of SARS-CoV-2 activity. We select 10 countries with serious epidemic in the world, which are distributed in different latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres. The study utilized the time series data of daily new cases and daily new deaths recorded in these countries. We regard May to October as the “high temperature season” for countries in the northern hemisphere, November to April as the “low temperature season”, and the southern hemisphere is just the opposite. By comparing the multifractal intensity [Formula: see text] and multifractal complexity [Formula: see text] of the two time series in the two seasons, we draw a conclusion that, for both the sequence of the daily newly diagnosed persons and the daily newly increased number of deaths, in the countries of both the northern and southern hemispheres, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are weaker in the “low temperature season”. That is, in the low temperature environment, SARS-CoV-2 can survive for a long time and be more infectious. In addition, we also observe that in the northern hemisphere, Iran is at a lower latitude, and although the SARS-CoV-2 activity in the low temperature season is higher than that in the high temperature season, the difference is not significant. Therefore, the lower latitude may resist this phenomenon. However, most of the countries in the southern hemisphere are within 30[Formula: see text] of south latitude, with low latitude, and other meteorological characteristics such as humidity in the countries in the southern hemisphere are also relatively unique. Although SARS-CoV-2 is characterized by high activity in low temperature seasons, no direct evidence related to the characteristics of latitude distribution has been found.","PeriodicalId":3,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Electronic Materials","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.3000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Electronic Materials","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s0218348x2350113x","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"材料科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper, we explore whether the activity of SARS-CoV-2 was associated with seasonality. MF-DFA model is utilized to calculate multifractal strength and multifractal complexity to evaluate the change state of SARS-CoV-2 activity. We select 10 countries with serious epidemic in the world, which are distributed in different latitudes of the northern and southern hemispheres. The study utilized the time series data of daily new cases and daily new deaths recorded in these countries. We regard May to October as the “high temperature season” for countries in the northern hemisphere, November to April as the “low temperature season”, and the southern hemisphere is just the opposite. By comparing the multifractal intensity [Formula: see text] and multifractal complexity [Formula: see text] of the two time series in the two seasons, we draw a conclusion that, for both the sequence of the daily newly diagnosed persons and the daily newly increased number of deaths, in the countries of both the northern and southern hemispheres, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are weaker in the “low temperature season”. That is, in the low temperature environment, SARS-CoV-2 can survive for a long time and be more infectious. In addition, we also observe that in the northern hemisphere, Iran is at a lower latitude, and although the SARS-CoV-2 activity in the low temperature season is higher than that in the high temperature season, the difference is not significant. Therefore, the lower latitude may resist this phenomenon. However, most of the countries in the southern hemisphere are within 30[Formula: see text] of south latitude, with low latitude, and other meteorological characteristics such as humidity in the countries in the southern hemisphere are also relatively unique. Although SARS-CoV-2 is characterized by high activity in low temperature seasons, no direct evidence related to the characteristics of latitude distribution has been found.
季节变化下SARS-CoV-2传播动态分析
在本文中,我们探讨了SARS-CoV-2的活性是否与季节性有关。利用MF-DFA模型计算多重分形强度和多重分形复杂度,评价SARS-CoV-2活性的变化状态。我们选取了世界上疫情严重的10个国家,分布在南北半球的不同纬度。该研究利用了这些国家记录的每日新病例和每日新死亡的时间序列数据。我们把北半球国家的5月到10月称为“高温季节”,把11月到4月称为“低温季节”,而南半球则正好相反。通过比较两个季节两个时间序列的多重分形强度[公式:见文]和多重分形复杂度[公式:见文],我们得出结论:无论是北半球国家还是南半球国家,无论是每日新增确诊人数还是每日新增死亡人数的序列,[公式:见文]和[公式:见文]在“低温季节”都较弱。也就是说,在低温环境下,SARS-CoV-2可以存活很长时间,并且更具传染性。此外,我们还观察到,在北半球,伊朗纬度较低,虽然低温季的SARS-CoV-2活性高于高温季,但差异不显著。因此,纬度较低的地区可能会抵制这种现象。然而,南半球的大多数国家都在南纬30度以内,纬度较低,南半球国家的湿度等其他气象特征也相对独特。虽然SARS-CoV-2具有低温季节高活性的特点,但没有发现与纬度分布特征相关的直接证据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
7.20
自引率
4.30%
发文量
567
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信