On the use of different data assimilation schemes in a fully coupled hydro-mechanical slope stability analysis

Abstract

Different data assimilation schemes such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), ensemble smoother (ES) and ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) are implemented in a hydro-mechanical slope stability analysis. For a synthetic case, these schemes assimilate displacements at the crest and the slope to estimate strength and stiffness parameters. These estimated parameters are then used to estimate the system's state and factor of safety (FoS). The results show that EnKF provides an FoS estimation with a mean close to the truth and with the smallest standard deviation, with ESMDA using the largest amount of assimilation steps also providing a mean close to the truth but with less confidence. The ES and ESMDA with fewer assimilation steps underestimate the FoS approximation and have low confidence. Assimilating measurements over a longer period provides a more accurate parameter, state and FoS estimation. ES has the best computational performance, with ESMDA performing worse, with its performance dependent on the number of assimilation steps. The computational performance of the EnKF is better than ESMDA but around 50% worse than the ES. Non-linearity of the underlying problem is a key cause of the multi-step assimilation processes having a better performance.