The effects of the informal economy on the relationship between financial development and economic growth

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Investment Management and Financial Innovations Pub Date : 2023-09-19 DOI:10.21511/imfi.20(3).2023.27

Anis Khayati, Chokri Terzi

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The relationship between economic growth and the development of financial systems has been analyzed from different perspectives for a long time. This paper addresses the effects of the informal economy on the relationship between financial development and economic growth, using a panel data covering 20 countries during the period 1993–2020. The results show that financial development, as measured by the IMF’s Financial Development Index, is positively associated with economic growth (the coefficient α1 related to financial development fd is positive and statistically significant at 5%). The results also show that large sizes of the informal economy moderate the influence of this association (α1 remains positive and statistically significant at 1%, while the coefficient α2 related to the interaction between financial development and informal economy, fd and ie, is negative and statistically significant at 1%). In effect, financial development has the greatest impact on economic growth whenever there is control over the informal economy’s size. Inversely, a favorable ground for the informal economy limits the positive association between financial development and economic growth. However, the results show the absence of a causality relationship between financial development and economic growth (W-bar = 1.0015 and Z-bar = 0.0048; p-value = 0.9980). The informal economy plays no role in making this type of link significant (W-bar = 0.9761 and Z-bar = -0.0756; p-value = 0.9520).

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非正规经济对金融发展与经济增长关系的影响

长期以来，人们从不同角度对经济增长与金融体系发展之间的关系进行了分析。本文利用涵盖1993-2020年期间20个国家的面板数据，探讨了非正规经济对金融发展与经济增长之间关系的影响。结果表明，国际货币基金组织金融发展指数衡量的金融发展与经济增长呈正相关(与金融发展fd相关的系数α1为正，且在5%时具有统计学显著性)。结果还表明，规模较大的非正规经济调节了这种关联的影响(α1仍然是正的，在1%时具有统计学意义，而与金融发展与非正规经济(fd和ie)相互作用相关的系数α2是负的，在1%时具有统计学意义)。实际上，只要对非正规经济的规模加以控制，金融发展对经济增长的影响就最大。相反，非正规经济的有利条件限制了金融发展与经济增长之间的正相关关系。然而，结果显示金融发展与经济增长之间不存在因果关系(W-bar = 1.0015, Z-bar = 0.0048;p值= 0.9980)。非正规经济对这种联系的显著性没有作用(W-bar = 0.9761, Z-bar = -0.0756;p值= 0.9520)。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Investment Management and Financial Innovations Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Finance

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

11 weeks

期刊介绍： The international journal “Investment Management and Financial Innovations” encompasses the results of theoretical and empirical researches carried out both on macro- and micro-levels, concerning various aspects of financial management and corporate governance, investments and innovations (including using of quantitative methods). It is focused on the international community of financiers, both academics and practitioners. Key topics: financial and investment markets; government policy and regulation; corporate governance; information and market efficiency; financial forecasting and simulation; financial institutions: investment companies, investment funds, investment banks, hedge funds, private pension funds; objects of real and financial investing; financial instruments and derivatives; efficiency of investment projects; econometric and statistic methods in project management; alternative investments; ratings and rating agencies.