A fossil locality predictive model using weighted suitability analysis for the Early Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation, Utah, USA

Abstract

Hard work and chance are nearly always among the deciding factors in finding new, important, and productive paleontological localities. Fossil locality predictive models have the potential to maximize field time and increase chances to find important localities. This study uses remotely sensed data to design and test a fossil locality predictive model for the Early Cretaceous Cedar Mountain Formation. Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS data from known localities were summarized, reclassified, and used in a weighted suitability analysis to categorize fossil locality potential of the study area. Field work was conducted to test model functionality. Field observations were used to refine the weighted suitability analysis. Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS data alone offers a less accurate prescription of fossil locality potential. Additional physical and environmental factors play a role in determining the chance of finding fossils. Slope degree and aspect data from known localities were summarized and analyzed to further refine the model. Forty percent of existing fossil localities within the final model boundaries were located on areas having the highest fossil locality potential as identified by the model. The usefulness of fossil locality predictive models is dependent upon the quality of input data and meth-ods used to determine fossil locality potential. To fully determine the quality of a fossil locality predictive model, field testing is ideal.