Modeling the current and future distribution of Brucellosis under climate change scenarios in Qinghai Lake basin, China

IF 0.7 4区 农林科学 Q3 VETERINARY SCIENCES
Temitope Emmanuel Arotolu, Haoning Wang, Jianing Lv, Kun Shi, Liya Huang, Xiaolong Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract Bruce llosis is a bacterial disease caused by various Brucella species, which infect primarily cattle, swine, goats, sheep, and dogs. The disease is typically transmitted to humans through direct contact with diseased animals, consumption of contaminated animal products, or inhalation of airborne pollutants. The majority of cases are caused by consuming unpasteurized goat or sheep milk or cheese. Based on observed Brucellosis occurrence data and ecogeographic variables, a MaxEnt algorithm was used to model the current and future distribution of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin, P.R. China. Our model showed the Brucellosis current distribution and predicts suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios. In the new representatives; SSP 2.6 and SSP 4.5 for the year 2050s and 2070s, our model predicts an expansion in the current suitable areas. This indicates that under the possible climate changes in the future, the living space of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin China will expand significantly. Ecogeographic variables that contributed significantly to the distribution of Brucellosis in Qinghai Lake basin are revealed by our model. The results of our study will promote comparisons with future research and provide a new perspective to inform decision-making in the field of public health in Qinghai province.
气候变化情景下青海湖流域布鲁氏菌病的现状和未来分布模拟
布鲁斯病是一种由多种布鲁氏菌引起的细菌性疾病,主要感染牛、猪、山羊、绵羊和狗。该病通常通过直接接触患病动物、食用受污染的动物产品或吸入空气污染物传播给人类。大多数病例是由于食用未经高温消毒的山羊奶或绵羊奶或奶酪引起的。基于观测到的布鲁氏菌病发生数据和生态地理变量,采用MaxEnt算法对青海湖流域布鲁氏菌病的现状和未来分布进行了建模。我们的模型显示了布鲁氏菌病的当前分布,并预测了未来气候情景下适宜栖息地的变化。在新的代表中;2050年代和2070年代的SSP 2.6和SSP 4.5,我们的模型预测当前合适地区的扩张。这表明在未来可能的气候变化下,中国青海湖流域布鲁氏菌的生存空间将显著扩大。该模型揭示了对布鲁氏菌病在青海湖流域分布有重要影响的生态地理变量。本研究结果将促进与未来研究的比较,并为青海省公共卫生领域的决策提供新的视角。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Acta Veterinaria-Beograd
Acta Veterinaria-Beograd 农林科学-兽医学
CiteScore
1.30
自引率
16.70%
发文量
33
审稿时长
18-36 weeks
期刊介绍: The Acta Veterinaria is an open access, peer-reviewed scientific journal of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Belgrade, Serbia, dedicated to the publication of original research articles, invited review articles, and to limited extent methodology articles and case reports. The journal considers articles on all aspects of veterinary science and medicine, including the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of medical conditions of domestic, companion, farm and wild animals, as well as the biomedical processes that underlie their health.
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