Climate change impacts on high altitude wildlife distribution: Predicting range shifts for four ungulates in Changthang, eastern Ladakh

Abstract

Climate change has a significant impact on species habitat and its distribution. Understanding and predicting range shifts and changing habitat use patterns in the context of climate change is important for management and conservation. Changthang region in eastern Ladakh is the western extension of the Tibetan plateau and is home to many ungulates. In this study, we used ensemble modelling using an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the current and future distribution of four ungulates namely Bluesheep, Tibetan gazelle, Tibetan argali and Kiang in Changthang region. We used the global circulation model (GCM) from WorldClim produced by Community Climatic System Model Version 4 to predict possible future changes with 24 environmental and topographic variables for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The results suggest that these ungulates may lose 57% to 61% of their current range, depending on the algorithm used and dispersal scenarios with a northward shift in their ranges. The maximum predicted range loss is for the Tibetan gazelle with an average of 90% loss, which might make it locally endangered with a prediction that only 9.5% of their present habitat might be suitable for them in 2070 in the context of climate change. An estimated 100 individuals of Tibetan gazelles are known to be in Ladakh with a patchy distribution in the southern part of the study area. The Tibetan gazelle in Ladakh requires urgent conservation efforts to enable it to adapt to future climate change scenarios in the region. We recommend restoration and conservation of grassland ecosystems that were historically and currently occupied by ungulates with additional attention given to potential suitable habitats outside protected areas by regulation of human activities.