Impact valuation of droughts in soybean and maize production: the case of Argentina

IF 3.5 3区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI:10.1108/ijccsm-11-2022-0139

Esteban Otto Thomasz, Ana Silvia Vilker, Ismael Pérez-Franco, Agustin García-García

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose In Argentina, soy and maize represent 28% of the total country exports, affecting the balance of payments, international reserves accumulation and sovereign credit risk. In the past 10 years, three extreme and moderate droughts have affected the agricultural areas, causing significant losses in soybean and maize production. This study aims to estimate the economic impact generated by different drought levels for soy and maize production areas through a financial perspective that allows the estimation of the cash flow and income losses. Design/methodology/approach By analyzing the extreme deviations in yields during dry periods, the losses generated by droughts were valuated among 183 departments nationwide. Findings The aggregated results indicated a total loss of US$24.170m, representing 57.45% of the international reserves of the Argentinean Central Bank in 2021. This estimate shows the magnitude of the climate impact on the Argentinean economy, indicating that severe droughts have macroeconomic impacts, with the external sector as the main transmission channel in an economy with historic restrictions on the balance of payments, international reserve accumulation and sovereign credit risk. Originality/value This study analyses the macroeconomic impact of drought on Argentinean soybean and maize production.

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干旱对大豆和玉米生产的影响评估:以阿根廷为例

在阿根廷，大豆和玉米占国家出口总额的28%，影响国际收支、国际储备积累和主权信用风险。在过去十年中，三次极端和中度干旱影响了农业地区，造成大豆和玉米生产的重大损失。本研究旨在从财务角度估计不同干旱程度对大豆和玉米产区产生的经济影响，从而估算现金流和收入损失。设计/方法/方法通过分析干旱期产量的极端偏差，对全国183个部门的干旱损失进行了评估。综合结果表明，总损失为2417万美元，占2021年阿根廷中央银行国际储备的57.45%。这一估计显示了气候对阿根廷经济的影响程度，表明严重干旱具有宏观经济影响，对外部门是一个在国际收支、国际储备积累和主权信用风险方面受到历史限制的经济体的主要传导渠道。本研究分析了干旱对阿根廷大豆和玉米生产的宏观经济影响。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

8.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

15 weeks

期刊介绍： Effective from volume 10 (2018), International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an open access journal. In the history of science there have been only a few issues which have mobilized the attention of scientists and policy-makers alike as the issue of climate change currently does. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an international forum that addresses the need for disseminating scholarly research, projects and other initiatives aimed to facilitate a better understanding of the subject matter of climate change. The journal publishes papers dealing with policy-making on climate change, and methodological approaches to cope with the problems deriving from climate change. It disseminates experiences from projects and case studies where due consideration to environmental, economic, social and political aspects is given and especially the links and leverages that can be attained by this holistic approach. It regards climate change under the perspective of its wider implications: for economic growth, water and food security, and for people''s survival – especially those living in the poorest communities in developing countries.