Simulation and optimization of Lar Dam reservoir storage under climate change conditions

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Water and Climate Change Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2023.225

Hediyeh Sadeghijou, Amirpouya Sarraf, Hassan Ahmadi

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Abstract

Abstract In this research, the impact of climate change in the next 15 years (2036–2022) in the (LarDam) area has been investigated. The results showed that in the case of climate change under scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature have increased by5, 5.23, 6.2% and 3.5, 5.6, 5.17%, respectively, and the amount of precipitation increased by 8.55, 9.5, 13%, respectively. Also, the highest rainfall will be in 2031 and the lowest will be in 2036. Then, based on the intermediate state of the scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 scenario, the amount of runoff was obtained and the reliability index was calculated according to the upstream runoff of Lar Dam and downstream needs for drinking, agriculture, and environment. The simulation was also performed in the WEAP model. The obtained reliability showed that the highest reliability was 86.60% of the agriculture needs in the WEAP model, and by using the optimization of a honey badger and harmonic search algorithms, it was found that the reliability is approximately 5.06 and 1.73% higher than the reliability of the simulation, respectively. Moreover, in comparison with the optimization algorithms, due to the smaller value of the objective function of the honey badger algorithm and the greater reliability of this algorithm in optimizing downstream needs, it can be concluded that the performance of this algorithm was better than the harmonic search algorithm. The honey badger algorithm has a faster calculation speed than the harmony search algorithm with less execution time.

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气候变化条件下拉尔坝水库蓄水模拟与优化

研究了未来15年(2036-2022年)气候变化对LarDam地区的影响。结果表明:在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5气候变化情景下，最高气温和最低气温分别上升了5.5%、5.23%、6.2%和3.5%、5.6%、5.17%，降水量分别增加了8.55%、9.5%、13%;此外，2031年降雨量最高，2036年降雨量最低。然后，基于情景的中间状态，即RCP4.5情景，根据拉尔坝上游径流量和下游饮水、农业、环境需求，计算出径流的可靠度指标。在WEAP模型中也进行了仿真。得到的可靠性表明，WEAP模型的最高可靠性为农业需求的86.60%，通过对蜜獾和谐波搜索算法的优化，发现其可靠性分别比模拟的可靠性高约5.06和1.73%。此外，与优化算法相比，由于蜜獾算法的目标函数值较小，在优化下游需求时可靠性更高，因此可以得出该算法的性能优于谐波搜索算法。蜜獾算法比和谐搜索算法计算速度快，执行时间短。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Water and Climate Change WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

10.70%

发文量

168

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.