Forecasting the Number of Road Accidents in Poland Depending on the Day of the Week Using Neural Networks

Q2 Engineering

Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering Pub Date : 2023-09-13 DOI:10.3311/pptr.22203

Piotr Gorzelanczyk

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A very large number of people are killed on the roads. Although the value is decreasing from year to year and the pandemic has reduced the number of traffic accidents even further, the number is still very high. For this reason, it is necessary to find out on which days of the week the highest number of traffic accidents occur, and to know the accident forecast for the coming years, so that we can do everything possible to minimize the analyzed value.The aim of the article is to develop a forecast of the number of road accidents in Poland depending on the days of the week. For this purpose, monthly data on the number of road accidents in Poland by days of the week were analyzed on the basis of Police data. Based on this data, a forecast of the number of road accidents for 2022-2024 was made in Statistica software. Selected neural network models were used to forecast the number of road accidents. The results show that we can still expect a reduction in the number of road accidents on Polish roads, but the prevailing pandemic disturbs the results obtained. The choice of the number of random samples (learning, testing and validation) affects the obtained results.

查看原文本刊更多论文

使用神经网络预测波兰道路交通事故的数量取决于一周中的一天

很多人死在路上。虽然这一数字每年都在下降，而且大流行病进一步减少了交通事故的数量，但这一数字仍然很高。因此，有必要找出一周中哪几天发生交通事故最多，并了解未来几年的事故预测，以便我们可以尽一切可能将分析值最小化。这篇文章的目的是发展波兰道路交通事故数量的预测，这取决于一周中的几天。为此目的，根据警方的数据分析了波兰按星期划分的道路事故数目的每月数据。基于这些数据，在Statistica软件中预测了2022-2024年的道路交通事故数量。选取神经网络模型对道路交通事故数量进行预测。结果表明，我们仍然可以期望波兰道路上的交通事故数量减少，但目前流行的流行病扰乱了取得的结果。随机样本数量的选择(学习、测试和验证)会影响得到的结果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Periodica Polytechnica Transportation Engineering Engineering-Automotive Engineering

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Periodica Polytechnica is a publisher of the Budapest University of Technology and Economics. It publishes seven international journals (Architecture, Chemical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Social and Management Sciences, Transportation Engineering). The journals have free electronic versions.