Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

Abstract

ABSTRACT As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). If the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.